Author: Admin

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

The Rockies are doing their best to hold off a dramatic cool front that’s enveloped 2/3 of the country, but if the second-half of the 2-week forecast holds true, we should expect most of the WECC to stay in the normal range at the coolest.  Southern California is on an island with its warmer than normal forecast in both weeks.

Precipitation Forecast

Cool, warm, it doesn’t matter when it comes to precip as the forecast is calling for a dearth of rain, at least in terms of percent of average, for the entirety of the WECC.

LMP Spreads

The SP-PV day ahead spreads peaked at a massive $27 on the 5th but narrowed to $4 on the 6th.  SP-NP showed a difference of $4 and $2 on those same days, respectively.

Futures

Crude finished the day down $0.80 after rising as much as $0.35 by midday.  Gas was up $0.02 in what turned out to be a volatile day as well as prices had climbed more than $0.05 by late afternoon.

West Term Gas Prices

December Sumas is staying on its erratic and mostly unpredictable course following a $1.25 rise over the past three days.  That comes off the back of what had been the lowest price since the early stage of the Enbridge explosion at $7.16.  April and July appear stable for Sumas, though July is beginning to rise for Socal Citygate.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie made a small climb to 9 MMCF on the 3rd, the first positive storage number in several weeks, but has since fallen back below 0.

Spot Gas

AECO has more than quadrupled over the past three days and now sits at $2.81, compare that to $0.57 from Saturday.  Sumas more than doubled overnight after settling at $9.67 compared to $4.08 the day before.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle is projecting overnight lows tonight at eight degrees below normal, and tomorrow high to come up seven degrees below average.  The following two days appear to climb back to normal before a very slight warm spell approaches.

Peak loads in Mid-C made a moderate increase of 600 MW yesterday, but the main story was in overnight loads as the low jumped 1,200 MW day-on-day.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was down sharply yesterday but managed a small 250 MW increase in overnight loads.  Week-on-week peak demand fell 400 MW yesterday as well.

No doubt Northern California is exempt from the Eastern-half’s sudden chill as San Jose projects highs above normal throughout the remainder of the two-week forecast.  Today calls for a high of 76, eight above normal, while lows should maintain a 50-degree floor.  Sacramento shows much of the same with daily highs in the mid-70s to round out the week.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand fell day-on-day as well as loads came up 700 MW short of Monday.  Off-peak demand increased 240 MW at its low day-on-day.

Look for Burbank to get progressively warmer leading into the weekend, eventually welcoming a high of 84 by the 12th, as impressive 12 degrees above normal.  We aren’t seeing as much anomaly in daily lows, however, as most days hug the average line tightly.

PV Demand

Phoenix is projecting very mild temps, some even below normal albeit remaining in the mid-70s.  Just two days over the next 14 are projected in the 80’s.

Vegas is even cooler as the 8th and 9th mark highs in the 60s.

Nuke Status

PV2 remains in refuel mode at 0% while all other plants stay at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms jumped 70,000 MCF yesterday but remain at their second-lowest point since mid-October.  Mid-C climbed another 58,000 MCF to reach 408,000 MCF, the highest point since October 23rd.

Renewables

SP-15 solar increased 900 MW day-on-day Monday following Sunday’s sub-5,000 MW output.  Wind averaged more than 1,500 MW over the 4th and 5th, adding to the overall renewable total.

Mid-C wind peaked at 2,700 MW on the 2nd but has seen a sharp decline day-on-day ever since, though it remains well above 1,000 MW in nearly all hours.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO gas outages fell just under 500 MW since the 4th and now sit at 5,354 MW, down 900 MW since the 30th of October.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Albeni Falls remains a foot under average and continues to set a new 10-year low for elevation on this date.

Snow Anomaly

Cooler weather and measurable precipitation led to a decent amount of snow in the Rockies and Washington’s Cascades.  BC added to its early-season snowpack as well, and Montana shows much of its stations above the 110% mark in early results.

Snow Depth Summary

Clark Fork, Upper Snake, Kootenai, and Clearwater all generated more than an inch in snow build over last week, though Kootenai saw most of that over just the last three days.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

Note the first signs of NOBs return, currently scheduled for the first hour on the 19th.

Very subtle changes to the COI line as there are a scattered few hours on the 13th and 14th with week-on-week differences, otherwise everything is moving forward as shown last week.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• November – Down 425 aMW
• December – Down 256 aMW
• January – Down 512 aMW
• February – Down 958 aMW

All four months through February showed heavy week-on-week decreases (the first few forecasted days of March showed up this week, thus nothing to compare it to).  January and February each wiped out the gains it had seen over the past two weeks, at least partially due to much of the Enbridge explosion coming to a more-known conclusion at this point.  November and December remained above its forecast from two weeks ago and well above what we saw three weeks ago.

Daily

November begins this forecast with an uptick in the first two days, but every day thereafter falls short of last week, with the largest decline showing up at 600 aMW by the 11th.  December carries over much of that same though the difference narrows as the month progresses, ultimately leaving December with less of a change than November.  January shows little change until the 9th where an 800 aMW difference is held through the remainder of the month.  February sees that difference widen to more than 900 aMW.

Year on Year

Despite the week-on-week decline, November and December remain mostly unremarkable compared to past years.  Jan-Feb appear below-average, but another decline next week could make the months show up more as an anomaly.

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

The entire west, though coastal areas in particular, should expect this week to be slightly warmer than next week as most of the WECC trends closer to normal.  Montana and the Rockies stand out as one of the only areas in the WECC to forecast normal aggregate temps.

Precipitation Forecast

Everything west of the Rockies remains drier than normal for both this week and next, especially in NP and the Sierra Nevada.

LMP Spreads

The SP-PV day ahead spreads peaked at a $2 difference at their daily highs each of the past three days.  SP-NP showed a $0 difference yesterday and just $1 the day before.

Futures

Crude finished the day down $0.46 cents but dropped as low as down $1.11 early yesterday morning.  Gas was up $0.04 in what turned out to be a very volatile day of trading with swings as high as $0.10 in either direction.

West Term Gas Prices

November Sumas isn’t letting off as prices climbed to $13.88 yesterday, and while January had been showing signs of slowing down after falling to $2.80 to $7.10 on the 29th, it has since rallied back to $7.96.  January SoCal Citygate is down nearly $1.00 week-on-week and is still falling as of yesterday.

Spot Gas

AECO is back to $0.69 after climbing out of the abyss from last week.  Sumas saw its price nearly halve yesterday after spending the previous day rocketing to over $14.00.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle should spend much of today and tomorrow above normal, but likely by just three or four degrees at its peak.  Portland could be considerably warmer with highs reaching 65 tomorrow, nine degrees above normal.  Neither city is hinting toward extremes in either direction over the next two weeks.

Peak loads in Mid-C made a small 100 MW increase yesterday while week-on-week loads moved north by 250 MW.  Overnight loads are showing signs of considerable growth as daily low demand has jumped more than 1,700 MW over the past two days.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand fell nearly 600 MW day-on-day and had close to the same difference week-on-week.   Overnight low demand increased 200 MW day-on-day, however.

San Jose’s is showing daily highs above normal for each of the next 14 days, including a high of 80 today at 12 degrees above normal.  We won’t see daily lows drop below normal until the 9th if this forecast holds true.

Sacramento shows highs in the 80s through Saturday, as well as lows staying above 50 through the 7th of November.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand fell day-on-day as well, this time coming up 500 MW short of Monday.  Off-peak demand increased 450 MW at it’s low, however.

Burbank could climb back into the 90s by the 2nd if the forecast holds true, and while temps may taper off from there, they should stay above normal for the foreseeable future.

PV Demand

Warm weather isn’t in store for Phoenix, at least nothing above average like we saw in the hubs above.  Phoenix is forecasting a high of just 75 today, 11 degrees below normal, and just 76 for Thursday.  We should see temps make a swing back toward the average by next week, but not much more than that.

Nuke Status

PV2 remains in refuel mode at 0% while all other plants stay at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms made a small 20,000 MCF increase yesterday and now sit at 850,000 MCF, down 10,000 MCF week-on-week.  Mid-C noms rebounded 110,000 MCF over the previous three days after falling to just 273,000 MCF on the 28th (the lowest since June).

Renewables

SP-15 solar dropped to just 4,819 MW on the 29th, the hub’s lowest level in more than two weeks.  Though, the lack of solar was supplemented by a heavy wind day thanks to 2,630 MW of wind generation over the 28th and 29th.

Mid-C wind has seen consistent generation since the 24th with a peak of 2,101 MW on the 26th, and more than 1,500 MW on both the 28th and 29th.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO gas outages continue to stack up with now more than 6,200 MW in total

Many of the most recent outages were forced.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Mica is still setting new low watermarks though it has stopped decreasing after hitting 2,434.6′.  Arrow is sitting 8′ above average while Albeni Falls crashed to a new low at 2,051′, more than a foot below average.

Snow Anomaly

A moderate amount of snowpack was added to the Idaho and Montana Rockies.  BC and Alberta continue to build on their early snowpack as well, while the Washington and Oregon Cascades sit largely bare.

Snow Depth Summary

Little Goose showed the largest growth in Mid-C snow build.  Lower Snake was the only basin to show a week-on-week decline.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

Big changes to note on the 5th for the BPA-COI line as TTC is scheduled to fall to 3,500 MW from 4,800 MW last week.  TTC will hover around that level through the 13th.

NOB remains down for maintenance.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• October – Down 75 aMW
• November – Up 954 aMW
• December – Up 475 aMW
• January – Up 650 aMW
• February – Up 365 aMW

The last three days of October brought on a 75 aMW decrease for the month, keeping the monthly forecast mostly intact.  November moved the opposite direction with an impressive 954 aMW increase, and December, January, and February followed that up with several hundred aMW increases of their own, each also representing the third-consecutive week of increases as well.

Aside from the fact that BPA needs the energy, this latest move is utterly nonsensical. The Northwest is amidst a draught, there is no plethora of rains or snow. Not that there won’t be, but as of today there are another 14 days of normal to dry in the forecasts; certainly not enough to drive these upward revisions.

Daily

November’s increases max out on the 6th and 7th where this week shows a 1,900 aMW jump compared to the previous forecast.  The rest of the month shows a slowly-diminishing line as the end of November wraps up with a 550 aMW week-on-week increase.  December holds much of that momentum, and the forecast looks fairly regular until January 9th where we see a return to 700 aMW daily increases.

Year on Year

With October essentially in the books we can see where it finalized compared to previous years — right in the middle, at 9,839 aMW.  November’s 954 aMW increase pushed it above all but four years, and very close to the second-highest forecast for November this century.

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

Enjoy this what’s remaining of this week’s warm weather as next week looks like the kicking-off point of autumn for much of the West (particularly east of the Cascades and east of Southern California).  The coastal regions will cool down from where they stand today but should still sit slightly above normal.

Precipitation Forecast

The Northwest will get its share of precipitation this week before seeing the weather pattern trend back toward normal.  Northern California appears particularly dry compared to normal where we might expect some measurable precip.

LMP Spreads

The SP-NP day ahead spreads are showing a difference of just $2 at their peak each of the past several days.  SP-NP increased that difference to $3 on the 22nd but fell back to $2 by the 23rd.

Futures

Crude came off nearly $2.00 yesterday and is now $10 off from its high on the 3rd of this month.  Gas is moving the opposite direction after tacking on another $0.08 yesterday, reaching as high as $3.29 in the process.

West Term Gas Prices

Sumas isn’t showing signs of slowing down in either November or January as it’s reached $11.22 and $9.96 in each month respectively.  Both months have seen Sumas more than double in just the past week as the pipeline explosion shows a more lasting effect on the market.

Spot Gas

AECO dipped as low as $0.41 on the 19th before climbing back to $1.23 as of yesterday.  Sumas isn’t showing any signs of letting up in spot gas either, reaching $7.79 yesterday without many signs of letting up.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle gets a moderate increase over normal today with a high of 59, three degrees above average.  Daily lows show the largest variance, however, as nights as falling only to 50, five degrees above where they typically sit this time of year.

The mild weather isn’t showing up as mild loads as week-on-week demand appears slightly up at its peak (100 MW), and up 200 MW in the daily average.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand increased just over 200 MW yesterday and was up more than 300 MW week-on-week.  Overnight low demand increased 150 MW day-on-day.

San Jose’s is showing a high right on track for normal today, but we’ll see temps slowly creep up heading into the weekend where highs will eventually reach the 80’s by the 26th.

While San Jose gets highs in the low 80’s, Sacramento gets highs up to 86 by the 27th, a full 13 degrees above normal.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand jumped more than 240 MW at its peak yesterday and saw an even larger 900 MW week-on-week increase.  Light loads climbed another 500 MW from their low Monday/Tuesday night.

Watch for a high of 88 in Burbank on Thursday, a seven degree increase over normal.  Heat will linger in the high 80s through Saturday before falling back to normal to begin the following work-week.  The beginning of November is showing potential for cooler nights with temps make their first appearance in the 40’s.

PV Demand

Phoenix will make its return to above normal temps, albeit only slightly, by the 26th.  While temps peak a couple degrees above normal, there aren’t any 90-degree days on the horizon.  Keep an eye on falling temps in PV during the first week of November as well.

Nuke Status

PV2 remains in refuel mode at 0% while all other plants stay at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms fell to 795,090 MCF, down from 1.1M MCF on the 18th.  WECC Interior is still in free-fall mode as well after settling at 889,831 MCF, the lowest point since May 14th, and down from 1.4M MCF at the end of September.

Renewables

SP-15 solar followed up last week’s low generation with a peak of 6,278 MW by the 18th, but that fell to just 5,737 MW by the 21st.  Wind didn’t add much during peak hours, but managed close to 1,000 MW in the late evening hours.

Mid-C wind has fallen nearly flat since the 13th with a high of just 83 MW of generation since then.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO gas outages set a new recent high at 5,589 MW yesterday, up from 4,600 one week prior.

The highlighted plants show where much of the day-on-day gas outage increase originated.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Mica remains on course for new 10-year lows in reservoir elevation, just as it’s done since the end of July.  Contrast that to Arrow which is more than 10′ above most of the previous five years.

Snow Anomaly

Last week’s warm weather burned off what little snowpack there was in most of the West, though the Canadian Rockies managed to add on to its early season pack.

Snow Depth Summary

Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph added on a fraction of an inch while every other station sent their snow down the river.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

The BPA-COI line originally showed the TTC increase set for the 19th, but it is now scheduled on the 2nd of November, and should lead to an eventual TTC of 4,800 MW.

NOB remains down for maintenance.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• October – Up 2,388 aMW
• November – Up 84 aMW
• December – Up 53 aMW
• January – Up 263 aMW

We got increases across the board in this week’s update, but the real news shows up in October where we see a massive 2,388 aMW increase, likely as a response to the pipeline explosion.  November and December show up with little more than white noise with just 84 and 53 aMW increases respectively.  January followed up last week’s sharp cut with a 263 aMW increase, though it remains far short of the forecast we saw even two weeks ago.

Daily

October’s increases run into November, at least until the 3rd, and show a week-on-week increase as high as 3,000 aMW (26th).  November early increase is immediately washed out by a sharp decrease from the 4th-8th, while the remainder of the month stayed flat week-on-week.  December showed little variance aside from the last two days of the month where a modest 200 aMW increase is shown.  January carried some of that late-December momentum through the entirety of the month, which amounted to the 263 aMW noted above.  We’ll have a decent picture of February next week, though you can see a sharp increase from what has trickled in thus far.

Year on Year

The 2,388 aMW increase to October was enough to push it ahead of the majority of observed years, a sharp contrast to last month which this year behind all others.  On the other hand, Nov-Dec continue to lag behind.

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

Warmer than normal temps should peak this week, but there are strong signs that they will linger into next week as well, albeit a bit more subdued.  What can otherwise be a cold area in mid-October, Eastern Washington and the Rockies of Northern Idaho and Western Montana look particularly warm this week.

Precipitation Forecast

Look for a wet Northwest and a dry Southwest over the next two weeks.  Temps are still too warm to do much to snowpack in most elevations.

LMP Spreads

The SP-NP day ahead spreads hit their peak with $19 of difference on the 16th at 12:00.  We’ve seen congestion from 9:00 to 17:00 every day this week.  Peak loads, on the other hand, have typically been within $1 of each other.

Futures

Crude was off $0.54 yesterday after falling almost immediately after opening and settled at $70.91.  Gas moved the opposite direction with a $0.04 raise to $3.35.

West Term Gas Prices

November Sumas is still shooting up and has now passed SoCal Citygate ($4.85) as yesterday settled at $5.23.  January has increased a more modest $0.90 since the pipe explosion while April and July appear unaffected.

Spot Gas

AECO posted a $0.58 decrease day-on-day after falling to $0.63, nearly equal to a $1.90 decrease in just a week.  Sumas has fallen $0.50 over the past two days and $0.40 day-on-day.

AECO and Sumas shot off in opposite directions since the BC pipe explosion.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle gets a massive 15-degrees above normal high today at 73, and warm weather should persist through the rest of the two weeks as each day projects above-normal highs.  Portland shows highs in the 70’s through the 21st as well, and a high of 75 today.

Northwest loads fell 600 MW at their peak yesterday as temps climbed closer to a neutral degree-day level.  Yesterday also represented a 1,050 MW increase in loads week-on-week.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand fell just under 16 MW day-on-day yesterday, essentially unchanged, but was down more than 500 MW week-on-week.  Light loads showed a 350 MW increase day-on-day.

San Jose’s forecast is filled with daily highs several degrees above normal.  Today checks in at 78, four above normal, and eventually climbs to 80 by the 19th, six degrees above normal.

Sacramento is forecasting predictably warmer as every day over the next two weeks shows a high of at least 80 degrees, and a peak of 85 on the 19th.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand jumped more than 230 MW at its peak yesterday compared to Monday, but still fell 600 MW short in the week-on-week comparison.  Light loads climbed another 150 MW on their low late last night.

Burbank gets its share of warm weather this week as well.  Temps will reach into the high 80s through the 21st before temporarily dropping three degrees from normal on both the 22nd and 23rd.

PV Demand

Phoenix falls well below normal for each of the next three days, especially today with a high of just 77 (11 degrees below normal).  Just three days over the next 14 are projected above normal with many falling more than five degrees from average.

Nuke Status

PV2 remains in refuel mode at 0% while all other plants stay at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms increased 230,000 MCF over the past ten days and now sits at the second-highest level of the month.  Mid-C dropped to 296,000 MCF on the 14th coming off the explosion where it was at 585,000 MCF, but now has risen to 428,000 MCF.

Renewables

SP-15 solar topped out at just 5,400 MW on Monday, an 1,100 MW decrease week-on-week.  Wind added 1,500 MW to make up for some of the lost solar production, but overall renewables remained down.

Mid-C wind has been quiet since the 12th’s 1,582 MW production as the previous two days failed to reach even 200 MW.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO gas outages began their climb on the 30th of September and have maintained that level for the most part ever since.  Outages totaled 4,656 MW yesterday, a 600 MW increase day-on-day.

The highlighted plants show the source of the day-on-day gas outage increase.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Mica shows the largest year-on-year differential as the reservoir sits 10 feet lower than it did on the same date last year.

Snow Anomaly

It’s a bit too early to look at anomaly percentages, but we can at least start to peek at our snow map.  A quick look shows that the majority of snowpack is taking hold in the Rockies while the Cascades and Sierra Nevada remain mostly bare.

Snow Depth Summary

Only a handful of basins are showing a greater than 1/4″ increase of snow depth week-on-week.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

The BPA-COI line will increase its TTC from 2,000 MW to 3,500 MW by the 19th.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• October – Down 462 aMW
• November – Down 170 aMW
• December – Down 22 aMW
• January – Down 1,351 aMW

All months got a cut in this week’s update, though most of the change were focused on the first and last months.  October is at its half way point today but knock off 462 aMW from its forecast as the month continues to drop seemingly every week.  November had a more subtle change at just 170 aMW decrease, and December was even more mundane with just a 22 aMW drop.  January had the largest movement with a massive 1,351 aMW decrease, putting it well below each of the previous four forecasts.

Daily

October falls behind last week by around 500 aMW until the 19th where it runs par, only to fall well behind last week through November 3rd (with the gap widening by as much as 1,000 aMW).  November stays close to even thereafter, and that trend carries over though December as well.  January sees last week’s early-month gains completely wiped out, and the rest of the month maintains a 1,200 aMW reduction as well.

Year on Year

October is 480 aMW behind the next-closest year as 2018 looks forecasts the lowest of this century.  February makes its first appearance this week, and because the data will continue to trickle in over the next few weeks, it’s too early to form many opinions on the initial data.

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• October – Up 39 aMW
• November – Down 94 aMW
• December – Down 388 aMW
• January – Down 158 aMW

Thanks to a federal holiday, STP is coming out a day later than normal this week.  Despite the elongated wait, there isn’t much excitement to report.  October checked on as the only month with a week-on-week increase, but that amounted to just 39 aMW.  November dropped a paltry 94 aMW this week, while December had a decidedly more impactful change with a 388 aMW decrease.  January rounded out the forecast with a decrease of its own at 158 aMW.

All cuts are reasonable given a 14-day dry outlook.

Probably, the RFC had no choice but cut its 120-day outlook. We, however, think its premature to make a definitive call on Dec, let alone January, and would take the Ansergy forecast over theirs.

Daily

October shows a sharp increase beginning on the 11th and running through the 19th, reaching as high as 660 aMW above last week’s forecast.  October finished the month with week-on-week declines, however, ultimately resulting in the 39 aMW increase described earlier.  November shows nothing of note in this update while December decline is derived from a shark week-on-week decrease from the 3rd through the 16th.  January shows little deviation from the previous forecast until the 5th where week-on-week declines run through the remainder of the forecast.

Year on Year

November and January stand out as the two months closest to average while October and December forecast well below previous years.

 

William

This weekly report, Change, summarizes how the week that just ended compares to both last week, and the same week a year ago.  Through 1000 change records, we have filtered down to those that we found most relevant.

 

[render_email_report name=”Change – MidC” date=”2018-10-06″]