Author: Admin

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

The chances of a white winter are fading fast as a warm front moves in following this weekend and should linger well into the next weekend as well, though the Northwest may see normal weather during the 19th-25th.  There is a 75% chance of above-average temps for the entire WECC for the 17th-21st.

Precipitation Forecast

While temps are expected to land above average, the weather won’t be dry in the Northwest as the chance of more than normal precip hits 70% for most of Mid-C.  Whether that falls as rain or snow in the mountains in still to be determined, however.  The 19th-25th look decidedly drier for California and the Southwest.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV DA continues to show massive differences in price, especially at their peaks.  The 10th, for example, peaked at $104 in SP and just $57 in PV.  The difference grew to $53 on the 11th.

SP-NP congestion is much more subdued as the 11th had a difference of $5 during peak prices.

Futures

Crude was up $0.36 cents at $51.90 yesterday but had reached as high as $52.45 at mid-day before settling much lower.  The market seems content at just above $50 for now.

Gas was down $0.08 to $4.24 yesterday and remained short of the monthly average of $4.44.

West Term Gas Prices

January Sumas is still sinking after yesterday saw prices fall $0.62 day-on-day to $6.72, also marking a $4 drop in just a week.  February is levelling out in the high $4’s, after notching its place at $4.87 yesterday.

Meanwhile, Citygate has taken over as the high-watermark in both months at $10.15 and $8.45 respectively.

Gas Storage

Mist saw storage run positive once again in its most recent update, though the total storage fell 700 MCF short of the same date last year.

Jackson Prairie remains negative at -53 MCF as of yesterday and has added to storage just once since Mid-October.  Daily change in storage dipped as low as -240 MCF as of the 8th of December.

Spot Gas

Sumas spot dropped $1.45 day-on-day yesterday, continuing its precipitous decline.  Citygate also fell yesterday, shedding $0.52 and settled at $8.54.  AECO remains above a dollar at $1.16 after several days below that mark late last month.

Sumas is now less than 1/3 its price from November 30th.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle doesn’t show a single hour below normal through the entire two-week forecast as most hour fall between 5-8 degrees above normal.  December 20th marks the highest high at 51, while daily lows never drop below 41.  Mild, mild, mild Christmas.

Portland crosses normal three times over the next two weeks but remains well above normal for the rest.  Look for a high of 55 on the 20th, and daily lows never falling below 39.

Loads were off close to 100 MW yesterday but were down more than 1,500 MW week-on-week.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand fell yesterday, though off-peak loads were up close to 300 MW.  Week-on-week loads came off more than 300 MW as well.

San Jose is projecting cold nights over the next three days, especially on the 13th where temps fall to 39, six degrees below normal.  Despite cold nights, San Jose is forecasting above normal daily highs as well as the 13th is set to hit 64, seven degrees above normal.

Sacramento is showing temps three or four degrees cooler than San Jose, though all hours should remain above freezing.  Temps should also stay above normal during daylight hours.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand fell more than 1,000 MW day-on-day yesterday and were off roughly 1,100 MW week-on-week.

Burbank should top out at least 70 in two of the next three days and could climb as high as 76 by the 20th.  Despite the warm days, overnight temps are projecting right at normal for most hours.  The deserts are warming up as well with flirtations of 80-degree days as we approach Christmas.

PV Demand

Other than a pair of cool nights on the 13th and 14th, Phoenix should record consistent above-normal temps for most hours over the next two weeks.  Look for highs near 70 for days 4-14.

Las Vegas could get a couple cooler nights on the 14th and 25th with temps at 39 and 31 respectively.

Nuke Status

PV2 returned to 100% on the 9th and is has been holding that position ever since.  Columbia Generating Station dropped to 66% on the 7th and has held a 73%-74% position ever since.

Renewables

SP-15 solar sunk to under 1,000 MW on the 6th and slowly made its way back toward normal by the 8th before again dropping to just over 3,000 MW yesterday.  Wind added just 150 MW on most hours during the drop, coming a far cry from making up the difference in generation.

Mid-C wind remains largely down for the month of December as no hours managed more than 470 MW, though the monthly high was set on Monday, perhaps a sign that generation could pick up soon.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO Gas outages dropped to 2,600 on the 10th but tacked on 600 MW by the 11th to once again top out above 3,200 MW.

ISO Outage Unit Data

The Encina units contributed the most to the outage increase.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Mica and Arrow mark the largest year-on-year movers in BC with reservoirs 15′ and 7′ lower than last year.  Despite the drop, Arrow remains higher than most years.

In Mid-C, Coulee is nearly 12′ short of last year and well below average.  Dworshak is three feet short of last year, while the remaining reservoirs fall close to a normal elevation.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

Two weeks has added plenty of low-level snow, but that’s not equating to much in the mountains, especially in the Cascades which sit well below 50% in most stations.  Montana lags behind now as well despite early season snow falls.  California is hanging onto a normal to above normal early water year, while the Snake River Basin lags behind.

Snow Depth Summary

The snow depth summary shows that there isn’t any melt that’s contributing to the slow year, it’s simply due to little snowfall.  The heaviest week-on-week snow station, Wash West, amounted to just 0.87″.

Snow Depth Chart

The Salmon River wasn’t always pacing this far behind normal.  The basin was comfortably above normal by the end of November, but with little snowfall since, the Salmon is ahead of just two years as of today, 2009 and 2010.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peak at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  Ansergy is maintaining its position that we will see a revert toward the mean while the RFC holds a below-average estimate for this year.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

COI marked two changes, the first was a three-hour, 1,200 MW drop on the 17th, and the second, a much longer, 1,000 MW decrease beginning on the 20th and extending through the rest of the forecast.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• December – Up 138 aMW
• January – Down 323 aMW
• February – Down 386 aMW
• March – Down 279 aMW

December showed up as the only month with a week-on-week increase in forecast, albeit just a 138 aMW increase.  January saw last week’s increase more than negated following this week’s 323 aMW drop.  February showed a decline for the third-consecutive week (386 aMW), while March fell 279 aMW following last week’s 400 aMW increase.

Daily

Despite December’s overall monthly increase, the majority of days are spent behind last week’s forecast.  In fact, after falling behind the previous forecast on the 20th, no further days in the remaining four months are projecting increases.  The largest overall difference shows up on March 5th at 600 aMW.

Year on Year

Despite today’s increases to December, this water year still falls short of all other years aside from ’02 and ’03.  The remaining months continue to lag behind as well, especially February which paces ahead of just two other years as well.

 

William

Good morning,

Here is an in-depth look into the fundamentals affected by the Enbridge explosion.  Highlights include the  Westcoast Pipeline – Station #4 (South of Prince George) ramping up to pre-explosion levels and Sumas falling below Citygate in spot gas prices.

 

[render_email_report name=”Enbridge Daily Briefing”]

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• December – Up 138 aMW
• January – Down 323 aMW
• February – Down  86 aMW
• March – Down 279 aMW

December added 138 aMW and notched its position as the only month with a week-on-week increase.  While December saw its second consecutive week of increases, January through March all saw moderate drops in forecast.  January followed up last week’s flat forecast with 323 aMW, and February saw its third-consecutive week of diminished forecast.  March continues its helter-skelter projections with a drop of 279 following last week’s 300+ aMW increase.

Daily

December began the forecast with a massive 1,800 aMW increase, but that slowly wilted down to an eventual week-on-week decrease by the 21st.  Aggregate that together and you end up with a monthly increase of 138 aMW.  January and February hold a steady 320-380 aMW decrease through each respective month with very little variation.  March gaps as much as 600 aMW by the 6th, but the difference shrinks to 450 aMW by the end of the month.

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

The blue blob of winter weather is centered in Wyoming but it’s stretching across the entirety of the West, especially from the Great Basin north.  The following week is less extreme but cooler temps look to linger everywhere outside of Southern California.

Precipitation Forecast

The Northwest will be cold but dry this week, while California and the Southwest may see a slightly higher than normal amount of precip.  Next week will bring a considerable amount of rain to Northern California and a return of wet weather to the Northwest.  Nearly everything east of the Rockies is projecting a normal amount of precip.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV showed a difference of $31 at their peak and $12 when comparing their low prices yesterday.  SP-NP had no difference at their peak price yesterday while SP-Capt Jack had $3.

Futures

Crude was essentially flat today following a $0.02 decline, bucking the one-day $1.20 rally from Monday.  Gas managed a $0.06 climb but was up as much as $0.12 at its peak yesterday.  Futures remain highly elevated.

West Term Gas Prices

December Sumas rallied strong yesterday with a $3.61 increase day-on-day, this on the back of a week-long drop in price.  Socal City had its own rally of $0.85 as well.  January Sumas jumped as well though more modest at $1.50.  Citygate stayed flat in January.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie storage ran positive again yesterday after adding another 42 MCF to storage.  That marks the 5th-straight day of injections, though it was off 97 MMCF from Monday.

Spot Gas

Sumas spot rose to $11.77, up just over a dollar from Monday but up more than $2.00 week-on-week.  Malin fell $0.30 day-on-day and is now more than $0.50 off its high on the 21st.

AECO crashed back below a dollar and settled at $0.42, its lowest price of the month.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle shows no sign of peeking its head into the 50’s any time in the near future as today tops out at 49, but that sets the high watermark.  Lows fall well below freezing half way through next week and highs will struggle to reach 40.

Loads were most flat yesterday as peak demand stayed flat through the weekend.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was up just over 100 MW day-on-day but was down 100 MW from its low in comparison.  Loads were also mostly down week-on-week.

San Jose is projecting a high of 65 today, five degrees above its 10-year average, but highs well drop off sharply, falling well into the 50’s by the weekend.  Daily lows could dip as far as 39 by the 3rd of December.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand fell more than 700 MW day-on-day yesterday though off-peak demand rose 500 MW.  Loads were off roughly 600 MW week-on-week as well.

Burbank is looking at a high of 69 today, just a degree north of average, but it too will see a considerable drop over the next week as temps fall as low as 40 by the 3rd.  If that low temp holds true, it would equate to 10-degrees below normal.

PV Demand

Not to be left out, Phoenix will get its share of cool weather next week as well.  Temps drop from a comfortable mid-70s high today and tomorrow to the mid-50’s by next Monday.  Overnight temps could dip to 39 by the 4th.

Las Vegas is even colder as we are currently projecting freezing temps for the 3rd and 4th and 30 and 31 degrees, respectively.  Temps may fail to reach 50 on each of those days as well.

Nuke Status

PV2 remains in refuel mode at 0% while all other plants stay at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms fell to 766,000 MCF, down 100,000 day-on-day and roughly the same difference week-on-week.  Mid-C noms ticked up another 20,000 MCF but haven’t varied by more than 80,000 MCF since the 5th of November.

Renewables

SP-15 solar was peaking at just 4,200 MW on the 22nd but has since been able to generate more than 5,300 as of the 26th.  Wind had a heavy presence from the 22nd through the 24th as no hour averaged less than 1,400 MW.

Mid-C wind peaked at 1,900 and 2,300 on the 22nd and 23rd respectively but fell off sharply soon after.  Wind managed a small comeback on the 26th with most hours averaging just over 400 MW.

ISO Gas Outages

Gas outages are up more than 2,000 MW week-on-week after another 600 MW of outages were tacked on to yesterday’s totals.

ISO Outage Unit Data

Two of the largest contributors to the increased outage counts are highlighted here — CENTRAL LA ROSITA II COMBINED CYCLE and LR2, both at 322 MW.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Mica is sitting at 25′ below average though that’s three feet closer to average compared to where it was at the end of October.  Arrow is down to 1,424′ and falling and diverting from the trend we see in the average line in the process.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

This week brought on considerably more snow in the Rockies in addition to a heavy dumping in the Sierra Nevada.  The Cascades remain well below average, however.  We’ll see if next week’s cold and wet weather is enough to bring the anomalies closer to 75% at least.

Snow Depth Summary

Wanapum and Rocky Beach each added more than half an inch over the past three days.  24 of the 30 tabled stations saw more than an inch of snow depth over the past week, however, while the remaining six were made up primarily of Montana stations.

Snow Depth Chart

Priest Rapids saw the most week-on-week build with 1.75″ tacked on.  It came at the right time as the station has had a very late start to the snow year, as the chart above illustrates.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

No week on week changes for either the COI or NOB lines, though each is set to see their TTC drop sharply by 10AM PST today.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• November – Down 738 aMW
• December – Up 363 aMW
• January – Up 53 aMW
• February – Down 72 aMW
• March – Up 428 aMW

This week’s 738 aMW decrease in November essentially wiped out the gain we saw last week, leaving the current projection lower than any of the previous four forecasts.  December reversed trend with a 363 aMW jump, while January added a very modest 53 aMW.  February dropped 72 aMW coming off last week’s sharp drop.  March now has enough data to join the table above, and it shows up with a 428 aMW gain.

Daily

November drops off immediately and holds that deficit well into December.  Dec 9th sees the course reversed as the current forecast gaps as high as 1,200 aMW above last week.  There are small gains from the 1st-3rd of January, though the remainder of the months is essentially par.  February held a 70 aMW drop through the entirety of the month.  March does the same until the final week where the increase can be attributed to new data.

Year on Year

With today’s cuts, November is now forecasting below all but three years since 2001.  December inched ahead of 2002 and 2003 but remains behind the remaining years.  January looks to be the sole month that is pacing at least average.

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

Warmer than normal temps are blanketing the west coast this week though that trend spill as far east as Utah and Montana as well.  The following week looks less abnormal as temps differ from average by just a few degrees in most areas with Northern California the lone exception.

Precipitation Forecast

The West is looks wet this week, especially the Cascades.  Next week looks to bring more of the same across the entire WECC.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV showed a difference of $28 at their peak and $16 at their low yesterday.  SP-NP was much tighter with just $5 of difference at their peak and $4 at their low (with NP coming out higher for the latter).

Futures

Crude is still tanking after having dropped to $53.30 in the futures after shaving off another $0.70 today.  Gas is back to $4.56 after dropping two cents day-on-day, though the day had plenty of volatility with prices ranging from $4.28 to $4.66.

West Term Gas Prices

December Sumas fell a massive $5.37 yesterday after peaking at $17.97 on the 19th.  That still represents a $3.00 week-on-week increase.  January fell to $9.12, enough to once again fall below Citygate (which settled at $9.32 yesterday).

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie storage has been running negative since the 3rd with reserves taking their largest hit on the 10th at -152 MMCF.

Spot Gas

Sumas fell to $9.69 well off its insane high of $69.25 on the 16th.  Malin finished at $5.63 and is continuing its steady climb after a 20% increase week-on-week.

Kingsgate is following a similar path as Malin as prices reach $5.45, a 50% increase week-on-week.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle is hugging the average line through the next seven days with just a handful of highs rising as much as three degrees above normal.  Same story in Portland, though much if its variance is coming in the overnight hours where temps are staying comfortably in the 40’s.

Loads were nearly identical yesterday compared to Monday though daily low demand was up 300 MW.  Peak hours followed a similar schedule and topped out at over 25,000 MW.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was down 300 MW yesterday compared to Monday and was down more than 600 MW compared to the previous week.  Off-peak loads managed a 400 MW increase day-on-day.

San Jose is projecting highs in the mid to low 60’s for the remainder of the forecast, a far cry from the 70+ high we saw yesterday.  Watch for temps dipping into the low 40’s by the weekend.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand plummeted more than 600 MW yesterday at their peak, but overnight loads showed a day-on-day increase.  Week-on-week peak demand fell roughly 1,000 MW.

Burbank is looking perfectly mild moving into the weekend as temps top out in the mid-60’s.  Sunday shows a return of the 70’s with a high of 77 for each day Sun-Tue.

PV Demand

Phoenix is pacing six degrees below normal for its highs beginning tomorrow and extending well into next week.  Lows aren’t projecting that extreme but still dip four degrees from average in most cases.

Nuke Status

PV2 remains in refuel mode at 0% while all other plants stay at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms are up 140,000 MCF since the 17th while Mid-C noms are staying on roughly the same level during that span of time at 425,000 MCF.  WECC Interior showed a massive drop yesterday with a 330,000 MCF day-on-day movement.

Renewables

SP-15 solar has dropped 20% in generation over the past week as yesterday checked in at just 4,100 MW.  Each of the previous four days failed to top the 5,000 MW mark.

Mid-C wind is working with peanuts during most days of the past two weeks though the 14th and 16th each managed to top 1,000 MW.  The high of this week peaked at just 314 MW on the 17th while the following two days only managed two hours above 100 MW.

ISO Gas Outages

470 MW of gas outages were tacked onto the ISO total yesterday, reaching 4,733 MW.  Still well shy of the totals we saw in late October, however.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Mica is still setting new 10-year lows as it currently checks in at 2,430′.  Hungry Horse and Arrow are reporting elevations slightly above normal while Albeni Falls remains at a low 2,051′.

Snow Anomaly

Here is another week-on-week look at how the snow pack is building, or in this case, isn’t building.  Aub-25% anomalies are creeping their way north through the Cascades due to a lack of early season storms coupled with mild weather.  The East side of the Rockies, especially in the north, are keeping pace so far this season.

Snow Depth Summary

Rocky Beach and Priest Rapids are the only two basins to show a week-on-week decline in snow depth, though each amounted to less than a tenth of an inch.  Still, just a handful were able to add more than 0.2″ over the past two days.  Upper Snake led the way with a 0.26″ build.

Snow Depth Chart

This water year is getting a bit of a slow start in the Upper Snake as it currently sits an inch shy of average and more than 4″ from last year.  2011 had a similarly slow early season snow build, but as the chart shows, it finished well above even 2018.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

The COI line shows just one day-on-day change beginning at 1800 tonight and running through 1600 tomorrow as 125 MW is added to TTC.  The line is forecasting 325 MW lower than what was shown last week.

NOB isn’t projecting any changes from last week.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• November – Up 339 aMW
• December – Down 39 aMW
• January – Up 913 aMW
• February – Down 1,011 aMW

Massive moves on the back-end of the forecast once again this week as latest update essentially wiped out the changes we saw last week.  January projected a 913 aMW increase following last week’s 413 aMW drop and February followed last week’s 902 aMW increase with a 1,011 aMW decrease.  November jumped 339 aMW, marking an increase for the second-consecutive week, while December recorded a minute change once again with just a 39 aMW difference.

Daily

November’s daily increases max out at the end of the month, particularly the 27th where we see a 650+ aMW increase week-on-week.  While December didn’t show a large change in compared to the previous forecast, the dailies tell us that’s a result of a first-half increase wiped out by a second-half decrease (the 1st shows a 600 aMW increase while the 31st shows a 350 aMW decrease…all other dates fell somewhere in between).  January and February are almost mirror images of each other with January showing increases across the board and February showing significant drops for each day.

Year on Year

February and March are looking especially bleak in the latest forecast.

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

The cold front that blanketed half of the country missed out on most of the west last week, and now leads into a slight warm spell for everywhere in the WECC not named Southern California and Montana.  Next week ushers in a return to normal for everywhere but Mid-C and NP.

Precipitation Forecast

SP is facing some decent precip over the next two weeks to go along with it’s cool-to-normal weather.  The Cascades are looking dry moving into next week, at least compared to normal.

LMP Spreads

SP-NP showed a difference of $15 at their peak on the 14th, compared to just $3 for the same hours on the 13th.  This is largely thanks to the massive $110 price we saw in SP.

Futures

Crude managed to stay positive yesterday (up $0.50), and finally ending its race to a new one-year low at $55.15.  Gas had a very volatile day with a day-on-day increase of $0.72 and a continuation of the increase that began on Halloween.

West Term Gas Prices

December Sumas jumped another $1.50 yesterday bringing it just a penny shy of its high of $11.14 that we saw in October, and now $4.00 higher than it was just 12 days ago.  January is following a similar erratic path as prices jumped $1.20 day-on-day.

SocalCitygate continues to make a slower climb in both December and January as prices have also matched their October highs.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie notched a withdrawal of 118 MCF yesterday, also marking the 9th-straight day of withdrawals in the process.  Socal has been using heavy withdrawals of its own since the 3rd of Nov after falling to -222 MCF of storage yesterday.

Spot Gas

Sumas jumped nearly $4.75 day-on-day in the spot markets and SocalCitygate added $1.80.  Sumas’ notched its 3rd-highest price of the year following the 8th’s $18.09 and Oct 30th’s $14.12.

Prices aren’t nearly as high as the hubs mentioned above, but Kingsgate has marked its highest price of the past year following a 40% increase since the 10th.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle is projecting temps above normal for all hours until early morning on the 17th.  Daily highs should reach into the mid-50’s, though lows could dip into the 30’s by the weekend.  Next week could be even warmer as the 21st calls for a high of 58.

Peak loads in Mid-C fell more than 1,000 MW day-on-day yesterday but still managed a 700 MW gain week-on-week.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was down just 100 MW yesterday compared to Tuesday and was up more than 200 MW compared to Monday.  Off-peak loads managed a 320 MW increase day-on-day.

San Jose is set to top out at 70 degrees today, but temps will slowly creep toward normal as we draw closer to next week where highs should rest in the low to mid-60’s.  Look for a low of 44 by the 18th.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand jumped 200 MW yesterday compared to Tuesday while low demand rose 130 MW day-on-day.  Demand was off 300 MW week-on-week, however.

Burbank should top out at 79 today before falling just below normal to finish out the week (and weekend).  The 20th calls for a high of just 69 before we see a potential reacquaintance with 80’s by the 21st.

PV Demand

Phoenix is projecting most hours below normal over the next seven days, including highs at just 73.  The following week should bring warmer temps, just as we are seeing in Burbank.

Nuke Status

PV2 remains in refuel mode at 0% while all other plants stay at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms fell from 967,000 MCF on Tuesday all the way down to 832,000 MCF yesterday.  NP basically held its position at 950,000 MCF yesterday, marking the second-highest nomination since October 2nd.  Mid-C reached 458,000 MCF, its highest point in three weeks.

Renewables

SP-15 solar remains mired in low 5,000 MW generation having eclipsed the 5,500 MW mark just twice in the past week.  SP wind isn’t doing much to make up for the lack of solar as it has failed to peak above 1,000 MW in each of the past two days.

Mid-C wind saw its floor fall out from under itself as well as generation peaked at 291 MW on the 11th and hasn’t topped 30 MW in an hour since 3 AM on the 12th.  Compare that to the 2,500+ MW hours we saw through much of last week.

ISO Gas Outages

More than 1,100 MW of gas has returned online week-on-week as of yesterday, and more than 2,500 MW since Nov 4th.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Three of the four reported BC reservoirs are well below their marks from last year with Duncan as the lone exception (and four feet above the same date last year).  Stateside, Hungry Horse is showing a 6′ increase year-on-year.

Snow Anomaly

Here is a before-and-after week-on-week comparison of snow coverage.  Cold weather made its mark on the eastern-side of the continental divide, but much less so on the West side of the mountains.  The North-Idaho Rockies report above normal snow depth while the rest of the state patiently waits for its first major snowfall.

Snow Depth Summary

While all basins showed at least a week-on-week increase (with the smallest coming in at a slight 0.03″), the largest weekly gain was still less than half an inch as the Missouri recorded 0.36″ and Grand Coulee marked 0.31″.

Snow Depth Chart

The red line shows the current water year’s place among selected years.  It’s obviously too early to determine much of anything, but the Flathead basin is above all but last year in this comparison.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

NOB is still on pace to return on the 19th at 3,100 MW.  Note the variation in TTC on the 26th and 27th.

The COI line is in the midst of a 1,200 MW reduction as it currently sits at 3,600 MW.  It’s scheduled to return to 4,800 MW by the 20th, though significant, albeit brief, reductions are in store on the 26th and 27th as well.

 

 

 

Have a wonderful day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• November – Up 126 aMW
• December – Up 2 aMW
• January – Down 411 aMW
• February – Up 902 aMW

November and December each recorded week-on-week increases, but neither amounted to much more than noise at 126 aMW and 2 aMW respectively.  The meat of the changes came in the back-end of the forecast where January saw its totals plummet for the second-consecutive week.  Alternatively, February nearly wiped out last week’s drop with a hefty 902 aMW increase.

Daily

As always, the devil’s in the details.  November may have shown an overall increase of just over 100 aMW, but that is after aggregating 300-400 aMW daily increases over the next ten days with 200 aMW decreases to finish out the month.  On the other hand, December stayed fairly true to its small weekly change as most days varied by less than 50 aMW.  January dropped off on the 7th and held that position through the remainder of the month.  February jumped to its increase on the 1st and carried it well into March.

Year on Year

November continues to look average while December and January stick out as outliers with paltry forecasts thus far.

 

William