STP Update

Good Morning,


The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.


Energy Scorecard:

  • October – Up 39 aMW
  • November – Down 94 aMW
  • December – Down 388 aMW
  • January – Down 158 aMW

Thanks to a federal holiday, STP is coming out a day later than normal this week.  Despite the elongated wait, there isn’t much excitement to report.  October checked on as the only month with a week-on-week increase, but that amounted to just 39 aMW.  November dropped a paltry 94 aMW this week, while December had a decidedly more impactful change with a 388 aMW decrease.  January rounded out the forecast with a decrease of its own at 158 aMW.

All cuts are reasonable given a 14-day dry outlook.

Probably, the RFC had no choice but cut its 120-day outlook. We, however, think its premature to make a definitive call on Dec, let alone January, and would take the Ansergy forecast over theirs.


October shows a sharp increase beginning on the 11th and running through the 19th, reaching as high as 660 aMW above last week’s forecast.  October finished the month with week-on-week declines, however, ultimately resulting in the 39 aMW increase described earlier.  November shows nothing of note in this update while December decline is derived from a shark week-on-week decrease from the 3rd through the 16th.  January shows little deviation from the previous forecast until the 5th where week-on-week declines run through the remainder of the forecast.

Year on Year

November and January stand out as the two months closest to average while October and December forecast well below previous years.