The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.
- October – Up 39 aMW
- November – Down 94 aMW
- December – Down 388 aMW
- January – Down 158 aMW
Thanks to a federal holiday, STP is coming out a day later than normal this week. Despite the elongated wait, there isn’t much excitement to report. October checked on as the only month with a week-on-week increase, but that amounted to just 39 aMW. November dropped a paltry 94 aMW this week, while December had a decidedly more impactful change with a 388 aMW decrease. January rounded out the forecast with a decrease of its own at 158 aMW.
All cuts are reasonable given a 14-day dry outlook.
Probably, the RFC had no choice but cut its 120-day outlook. We, however, think its premature to make a definitive call on Dec, let alone January, and would take the Ansergy forecast over theirs.
October shows a sharp increase beginning on the 11th and running through the 19th, reaching as high as 660 aMW above last week’s forecast. October finished the month with week-on-week declines, however, ultimately resulting in the 39 aMW increase described earlier. November shows nothing of note in this update while December decline is derived from a shark week-on-week decrease from the 3rd through the 16th. January shows little deviation from the previous forecast until the 5th where week-on-week declines run through the remainder of the forecast.
November and January stand out as the two months closest to average while October and December forecast well below previous years.