Author: Admin

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

Winter is making a gradual move back into the Northwest over the next two weeks, particularly in the back-end of the forecast.  California remains exempt for most of the next two weeks as should chart out above normal for most areas, especially those closer to the coast.

Precipitation Forecast

Most of the West is projecting a bone-dry forecast, at least relatively dry considering it’s January.  Don’t expect significant snowfall in the Cascades or anywhere in California.  Western Montana could be exempted from this forecast, though it remains on the margin of dry/wet.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV DA prices continue to show the most congestion this week as the two hubs have varied between $10-$20 for most of this week.  SP-NP is much tighter with NP priced one to two dollars more during most peaks.

Futures

Crude climbed nearly a dollar higher yesterday and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down soon after finishing at $52.33.

Gas shed $0.06 yesterday to finish at $3.22 and reversing the sharp climb that was started on the 10th (at $2.98).

Natural Gas – Term

SP15 has dropped more than $1.50 over the last week from its February price.  Mid-C is now just $0.20 from its pre-explosion price.

WECC Gas Demand

SP-15 gas demand sunk 360,000 MMCF yesterday, its largest single-day decline since December.  Palo saw demand going the opposite direction following a 140,000 MMCF climb day-on-day.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie storage has run in withdrawal territory every day since the 10th, including yesterday’s 361 MMCF deficit (though that’s less than the 580 MMCF withdrawal we saw on the 14th).

Mist is still injecting after adding 66 MMCF yesterday.  We’ve seen injections, or at least no withdrawals, every day since Nov 29th.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Mica is still setting new 10-year lows and has been since July, though it’s worth noting yesterday’s elevation was only a foot off from last year’s mark while remaining 20′ from average.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

Many stations sit in the position that could allow a large storm to push them into the normal category, but for now, much of the west fall below 90%, or even 75% in the Central to Southern Cascades.  Montana and Idaho lost ground on average over the past week without new snowfall.

Also worth noting the lack of low-level snowpack that we’d usually see at this time.  Early season melts may not have much of an effect this year.

Snow Depth Summary

11 stations lost snowpack across the past seven days, but none more than Bonneville and its 0.82″.  The Dalles and John Day saw 0.59″ and 0.46″ melt off their totals as well.  Not a good week for snow along the Columbia Gorge.

On the flip side of that equation, we saw Flathead, Kootenai, and Cark Fork all notch at least 0.81″ week-on-week.  That also means not a single station managed more 1.00″ of snow.

Snow Depth Chart

Most of Clark Fork’s snowfall over the past came within the first few days as the station sat mostly flat since the 10th.  Despite the 3rd-most snow of the week, Clark Fork remains 2″ below average and trails last year’s totals by nearly 3.5″.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peek at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  We are seeing even more separation between the RFC and Ansergy forecast for Grand Coulee Apr-Sep.

NP Snowpack Anomaly by Station

Last week showed 9 of 36 stations at or above normal, but this week brings just 3  —  Independence Camp, Buckskin Lower, and Css Lab (two of which are on the Truckee River).  Not a good trend for snowpack in NP, especially on the Klamath River where Taylor Butte is reporting below 50% of normal.

 

Demand

 

Mid-C Demand

Seattle will push north of normal for nearly hour from today until the 21st and will reach as high as 51 on the 17th, seven degrees above normal.  Tonight’s low of 36 will set the floor for the remainder of the forecast.

Watch Portland late next week as it projects a high of 55 on the 23rd, potentially 10 degrees above normal.

Loads climbed 200 MW in Mid-C yesterday as the hub sat was blanketed in cooler weather, especially overnight where demand jumped 700 MW day-on-day.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand saw small day-on-day growth yesterday but was mostly flat in the week-on-week comparison.  Overnight loads increased 250 MW day-on-day, however.

San Jose isn’t breaking records in daily highs as most day sit at or a couple degrees below normal, but overnight temps are forecasting as high as 52 by the 17th, equal to eight degrees above normal.  note the 23rd’s high of 67, also at eight degrees above normal.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand fell just more than 600 MW by mid-day though overnight loads managed a 500 MW increase.  Week-on-week loads were up more than 500 MW.

Cool temps over the next couple days will eventually lead into highs of 69 for both the 19th and 20th, as well as a return to 70’s on the 23rd.  Highs won’t reach normal until then, but overnight lows might stay at or above normal for the foreseeable future.

PV Demand

Next week is maintaining a forecast of cooler temps as high fall 5+ degrees below normal in Phoenix.  The rest of this week is marked by average highs and lows in the low-40’s over the weekend.

 

Fundamentals

 

Nuke Status

All six nukes remain generating at 100% capacity though CGS dipped to 99% momentarily on the 13th.

Renewables

SP-15 solar fell to just 1,333 MW on Monday and reached just 2,400 on Saturday, both among the lowest generation days of the year.  Consistent 5,000+ MW days are not dependable as of late.

Mid-C wind is dependable if you are dependent upon sub-500 MW generation, at least as of this week.  mid-C hasn’t seen wind top out above 450 MW since the 8th.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO gas outages were mostly flat yesterday after seeing just 19 MW return online.  Outages have hovered around 3,000 MW for the past three days.

 

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

While last week showed COI as unchanged through the forecast, this week differs in across every hour.  Note the drop to 2,100 MW on the 18th, and the 300 MW increase on the 23rd.  All other hours are spent 50 MW higher than last week’s projection.

NOB remains unchanged at 3,100 MW.

 

 

 

Have a great day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

 

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• January – Down 1,165 aMW
• February – Down 741 aMW
• March – Down 750 aMW
• April – Up 1,046 aMW

January saw its gains from last week more than erased as the forecast did an about face while erasing 1,165 aMW from this week’s projections.  The cuts didn’t stop there.  February dropped 741, its largest move in either directions in weeks, while March plummeted 750, leaving the month with its smallest forecast in several updates.  April was the outlier with a 1,046 aMW addition and now sits nearly 4,000 aMW higher than it did four weeks ago.

Daily

January sees its largest week-on-week difference on the 20th where 2,700 aMW separates this week from last.  That changes to a positive differential for the 23rd and the 24th, but again falls behind through the end of February.  March begins the month in a neutral position then sees the difference extend to 1,200 aMW through mid-April, after which point this week’s forecast was increased by as much as 3,400 by April 30th.

Year on Year

February and March continue to play the role of outliers as each place in the bottom stack compared to the rest of the century.  January shows the smallest difference between the highest year and 2019, albeit that still comes in with a delta of 7,200 aMW (when compared to 2011).

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

The West is set to warm up for days 6-14, though Arizona and some of Southern California may be the lone omissions.  The coasts of Washington and Oregon in particular are trending well above normal, and that trend should extend east enough to capture Seattle and Portland in the back-end of the forecast.

Precipitation Forecast

Mid-C continues to show below-normal precipitation, just as we saw in last week’s forecast.  California, especially just west of the Sierra Nevada, may see precip totals well above normal.

LMP Spreads

SP-NP DA showed a $4 difference at its peak for the 8th.  NP jumped well ahead of SP during the early afternoon hours of the 9th.

Futures

Crude continued its patient upward climb after adding another $0.37 yesterday and finishing at $49.97.  That’s more than a $7.00 increase since bottoming out on the 24th.

Meanwhile, gas shed $0.05 and settled at $2.86, though was as low as $2.84 at one point in the day.

WECC Gas Demand

Mid-C had the sharpest day-on-day increase in gas demand at 60,000 MMCF.  SP-15 had a larger nominal increase, however, with 104,000 MMCF added on to the total yesterday.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie storage withdrawals were flat yesterday at 128 MMCF and haven’t injected since December 29th.

Total Jackson Prairie storage remains more than 6,000 MMCF above the equivalent date last year.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

No dramatic changes this week though Hungry Horse moved slightly further below average in terms of elevation.  BC’s Arrow reservoir shows the largest year-on-year difference at just over 16′.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

Low level snowfall was further diminished this past week while we saw moderate gains in higher elevations, especially in NP where the Sierra Nevada stations are reporting near normal levels compared to 50-70% last week.  The Cascades, especially in Oregon, continue to pace below normal.  Southern Idaho particularly stands out with its slow start to the water year.

Snow Depth Summary

Chief Joseph highlighted this week’s snowpack increase with 1.40″ over the previous seven days and 0.85″ over the past three.  Bonneville showed slightly more gains at 1.70″, albeit within a less impactful reservoir basin.

All stations managed increases over the past three days though Wanapum and Flathead lagged behind all other basins with just 0.15″ and 0.29″ recorded respectively.

Snow Depth Chart

A slow start to this week’s snowfall hasn’t helped the Flathead basin when compared to the average, and especially not when compared to last year.  2019 sits more than an inch from normal and two inches from 2018.  Flathead paces ahead of just 2016 and 2017 as of yesterday.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peek at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  Grand Coulee Apr-Sep Ansergy and RFC were once on pace to converge, but that is no longer the case.

NP Snowpack Anomaly by Station

Just 9 of the 36 monitored stations are pacing ahead of normal, though 16 remain within 90%.  Quartz Mountain of the Klamath and Little Valley of the Truckee River are the only stations recording more than an inch above normal (1.2″ and 1.15 respectively).

 

Demand

 

Mid-C Demand

Yesterday marked the end of below-normal temps for Seattle as the area paces far above average through the 17th.  This coming week is highlighted by 50-degree temps on the 10th, topping out at 10 degrees above normal.

Portland should see mid-50’s over the 10th and 11th as well, though temps will dip into the high 30’s overnight, while Seattle is projected to stay above 40 for the foreseeable future.

Demand shot up 500 MW across Mid-C as yesterday saw much cooler temps, especially overnight.  Expect loads to fall today as warm weather makes its return.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand saw modest day-on-day growth yesterday and remained well above the mark week-on-week (albeit that fell on a holiday).  Overnight loads fell roughly 200 MW.

San Jose is projecting hourly temps one or two degrees above normal through the 16th, but as the chart depicts, a decent warmup may be in store thereafter.  Look for highs in the mid to upper-60’s as the forecast is rounded out.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand fell just more than 200 MW by mid-day though overnight loads were up close to 300 MW.

Burbank is trending cooler during the day with most highs falling 5+ degrees below normal, but more notably, is maintaining normal temps overnight.  The forecast suggests a return to normal by the 19th.

The desert cities will reach the 70’s today and tomorrow but will also see daily temps fall below average as we move into the weekend.  Overnight lows are expected in the mid-40s.

PV Demand

Phoenix managed s few days above normal recently, bucking the trend of a cooler winter, but a return to normal is in store beginning on Friday, at least in terms of daily highs.  Overnight lows look a few degrees warmer than normal with some days failing to fall below 50.

 

Fundamentals

 

Nuke Status

All six nukes remain generating at 100% capacity.

Renewables

SP-15 solar fell back below 5,000 MW each of the past three days, breaking the trend of 5,200+ MW of generation we saw much of last week.

Mid-C wind picked up over the weekend, and aside from a light day on the 5th, the hub has seen consistent 1,000+ MW generation, including consecutive days with 2,000+ hourly peaks.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO gas outages have made a steady climb up the ladder since the beginning of the new year.  Outages have increased 3,300 MW since the 31st, including 500 MW day-on-day yesterday.

Major Unit Outage Summary

PG&E’s Colusa Generating Station shows 300 MW of outages, the largest among gas plants.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

COI doesn’t show any variation in its TTC forecast as capacity is expected to stay at 3,125 MW through the next two weeks.

NOB maintains its momentary blip on the 14th and is unchanged compared to last week’s projection.

 

 

 

Have a great day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

 

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• January – Up 827 aMW
• February – Up 362 aMW
• March – Down 107 aMW
• April – Down 427 aMW

Another big update for January as 827 aMW was tacked onto the forecast, marking the second-consecutive weekly increase, and pushing the total to the highest level in some time.  February bucked the trend of little to no change with a moderate 362 aMW increase.  March and April went the opposite direction; March took its already modest forecast and saw 107 aMW disappear, while April shed 427 aMW following last week’s massive increase.

Daily

January’s forecast shows immediate increases that run through the end of the month before settling for a slight dip for the first eight days of February.  The remainder of February through March 6th show gains and is highlighted by a 1,050 aMW increase on the 27th.  March 7th through April 30th show decreases widening by as much as 600 aMW.

Year on Year

May is showing up in the forecast, but will remain incomplete for a couple more weeks, so don’t draw too many conclusions from this chart.  January’s increase this week once again pushed the month closer to above-average territory.  April remains far from a heavy hitter, especially after dropping 427 aMW this week.

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

Mid-C, NP, and the Great Basin look to be mired in normal temps for days 6-14, while the rest of the west has a decent shot at above-normal temps for the foreseeable future.  Though it’s winter, so the real news is the lack of cold temp forecast for any region.

Precipitation Forecast

Everywhere south of Mid-C is forecasting wetter than normal, especially in California.  The Mid-C is looking normal to slightly dry while the Northern Rockies, especially Montana, may be lacking significant snow in the back-end of the forecast.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV DA showed $14 of congestion at their peak for the 2nd and $15 for the 3rd.  SP-NP were identical on the 2nd and showed $1 for the 3rd.

Futures

Crude finished up $0.80 yesterday to $47.35, close to a five-dollar increase since bottoming out on the 25th of December.

Gas was down just a penny overall but had swings of up to $0.09 during the span of the day.  At $2.81, gas has fallen dropped more than $0.80 in just a week.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie storage plummeted to -229 MMCF yesterday, marking the fifth-consecutive day of withdrawals in the process.  Despite these withdrawals, overall storage is still well ahead of last year on the same date (22,704 in 2019, 16,984 in 2018).

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Arrow fell just under half a foot week-on-week after notching an increase in last week’s report.  The reservoir now sits 0.3′ below average, but 17′ below the mark set on the same day last year.  Grand Coulee is now five feet below 2018. Dworshak and Chief Joseph are the only reservoirs above last year’s elevations.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

Low level snowfall was most impacted (negatively) in this week-on-week comparison, especially in the Columbia Basin of Washington.  Note how many more stations in Western Montana are now reporting within a normal range compared to last week, while the opposite is true in NP as the Sierra Nevada loses pace against average.

Snow Depth Summary

The Snake River, particularly in SE Washington saw most of the week-on-week snowpack gains as Lower Monumental and Little Goose each recorded a 1.81″ increase.  Flathead was blanketed with 1.4″ as the basin reached normal conditions as noted above.

All other stations managed at least 0.47″ over the past week, though we saw three stations (Wanapum, Priest Rapids, and Rocky Reach) with a loss over the past three days as temps climbed across the west.

Snow Depth Chart

The 1.81″ in Lower Monumental pushed the basin further ahead of normal, as has been the case since Mid-December, and now sits 1.6″ above average.  The difference compared to last year was stretched to more than 3.5″.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peek at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  Grand Coulee Apr-Sep Ansergy and RFC have nearly converged in the most recent results.

 

Demand

 

Mid-C Demand

Seattle should reach 49 today, five degrees above normal, but temps revert back to average soon after, at least for the following week.  That also means we aren’t forecasting any dramatic drop in temperatures for the time being, something Seattle and Portland haven’t seen this winter.

Demand fell hard yesterday as the region warmed up and thawed out.  Overnight loads dropped more than 1,200 MW.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was up 250 MW at its peak yesterday compared to Wednesday.  Overnight loads were up an even higher 400 MW.  Demand was also up week-on-week to the tune of roughly 800 MW.

San Jose may not see a return of 30-degree temps for some time as not a single day in the next 14 is forecasting anything below 44.  Next week could start off with a high of 60 if the projections hold true.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand rose more than 600 MW by mid-day and overnight loads were up more than 700 MW.  Week-on-week demand was up 1,000 MW yesterday as well.

Burbank’s cool overnight temps should be well in the rearview mirror by tonight as the forecast calls for 45 degrees (compared to 40 last night).  Highs should sit comfortably in the 60’s all of next week while minimum temps are projected north of 45 for the next 14 days.

PV Demand

Phoenix is continuing its path out of winter temps as lows move from 32 yesterday to 47 by the 9th, equaling normal overnight lows in the process.  Highs aren’t expected to peak their heads above the 70-degree mark until the back-end of the forecast, and thus may not happen for even longer.

 

Fundamentals

 

Nuke Status

All six nukes remain generating at 100% capacity.

Renewables

SP-15 solar reached the 5,000 MW mark for the third-consecutive day yesterday and is continuing the trend of 5k+ generation that was saw start in earnest last week.

Mid-C wind had heavy generation over the weekend as the hub topped out above 2,500 MW, but those levels were short-lived as Tuesday and Wednesday failed to reach the 1,000 MW mark.

ISO Gas Outages

After increasing from 791 MW on the 31st to 2,155 MW on the 2nd, ISO gas outages once again fell as yesterday registered at 1,786 MW.

Major Unit Outage Summary

Calpine’s LOS MEDANOS ENERGY CENTER (AGGREGATE) showed the largest return to online status at 561 MW.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

COI shows just one difference in this week’s projections as the 7th (at 7:00 AM) marks a 240 MW reduction in TTC that extends through the remaining two weeks.

NOB also notes its first alteration to the TTC schedule in some time, albeit just a five hour, 139 MW reduction on the 14th at 9:00 AM.

 

 

 

Have a great day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

 

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• January – Up 618 aMW
• February – Down 36 aMW
• March – Up 241 aMW
• April – Up 2,352 aMW

The new year will start off with a dramatic STP forecast, at least for two of the four months forecasted.  January saw a dramatic 618 aMW increase following last week’s 150 aMW drop, and enough to place the forecast well above any in the previous four weeks.  February saw another decline, although it came in the form of just 36 aMW, while March bounced back with a 241 aMW increase.  The news of the week came from April, however, as a massive 2,352 aMW was added to the forecast, boosting the month higher than any other week thus far.

Daily

January’s forecast peaks on the 5th at 12,617 aMW, a 1,300 aMW increase week-on-week, but slowly declines on a straight line through the end of February.  March sees the forecast rebound on another straight line that runs through mid-April before dropping nearly 2,000 aMW over two days, though remaining well above last week’s forecast throughout the month.  At 15,512 aMW on April 16th, this week’s forecast showed a 3,000 aMW week-on-week increase.

Year on Year

While April still paces well behind most years, it’s no longer an outlier in the other direction as it sits comfortably in the middle of most forecasts.  April most closely resembles the 2015 forecast as of this week.

 

William

Good morning,

 

Sad news out of the Northwest where a University of Washington professor declared the northern Pacific Ocean blob dead as of the 24th of December.

October Blob:

December 24th Blob:

To summarize the article, stormy, windy weather generated action on the surface of the ocean to mix colder water from greater depths and essentially wiped out whatever sea-surface anomalies that were present in the previous two months.

If you think the blob was the cause of the warmer than normal start to the water year, then maybe its death will bring an increase in loads in the coming months.  Either way, RIP blob.

NOAA Forecast Images

The entire West Coast should see above normal temps for all days between 6 and 14, but it will be especially warm in Southern California in the latter part of the forecast.  The Four Corners region will move from below normal to nearly average during the same span of time.

Precipitation Forecast

The mountains are forecasting bare for the foreseeable future, especially the Cascades where there is a 60%+ chance of below-normal precip.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV DA showed $8 of congestion at their peak for the 26th and $9 for the 27th.  SP-NP were identical on the 26th and showed $2 for the 27th.

Futures

After rallying $4 on the 26th, crude fell back to $45.15 yesterday.  December is on pace to show a monthly average $7.50 lower than November, and a $21 difference when comparing the two month’s peaks.

Gas futures jumped $0.14 to $3.64 after falling as low as $3.46 on the 24th.  Despite closing at $3.64, gas had dropped as low as $3.40 by mid-day.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie storage fell to -86 MMCF yesterday, down from -33 MMCF the day before, and a far cry from the 139 MMCF injection we saw on the 23rd.  Despite the consecutive days of withdrawals, Jackson Prairie managed a positive week on average.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Arrow is sitting 15′ below last year on the same date, that’s a 3′ increase over last week’s mark.  Hungry Horse is moving in the direction after falling another foot below last year’s level to bring the total difference to 2′.

Chief Joe and Duncan show up as the only two reservoirs with more than a foot higher in elevation compared to last year.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

The past week brought snow cover to much of the west including a vast amount of low-level areas.  The Cascades saw the largest improvement in snowpack as most stations are now measuring in the 75%-90% range compared to 50%-75% last week.  We could see the low-level snow disappear over the weekend as a warm front passes through, albeit quickly.

Snow Depth Summary

Most stations added more than an inch of snowpack over the last week, but Bonneville led the way with 2.34″, including just under an inch in the past three days.

Mid-C as an aggregate added 1.4″ over the past week.

Snow Depth Chart

Spokane was once nearly 50% from average during the first week of December, but a series of snowstorms over the past two weeks has let the basin climb its way back to normal.  The basin is also ahead of where it was on the same day last year, despite the slow start.  This, of course, could be wiped out quickly if the dry forecast looming on the Northwest hold true.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peak at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  The convergence we saw between Ansergy and the RFC for Apr-Sep in The Dalles has moved in the opposite direction over the past week.

 

Demand

 

Mid-C Demand

Seattle will be almost balmy this weekend as temps are set to top out at 50, six degrees above normal and just a degree from setting a new 10-year high.  Most hours project above normal through next week until reaching the 5th where we could see overnight temps fall below freezing at 31 degrees, eight from normal.

As the weather cooled off yesterday, loads moved in the opposite direction.  Demand was up 500 MW day-on-day at their peak, though that still equated to a 600 MW drop week-on-week.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was up 120 MW at its peak yesterday compared to Wednesday.  Much like Mid-C, this was 600 WM short of the levels we saw a week ago.

San Jose stays close to the normal line, at least for daily highs, through the rest of the year, but starts to deviate thereafter.  The 3rd could see the area top out at 60 while lows remain comfortably above the 40-degree mark.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand increased more than NP or Mid-C as there was more than 400 MW growth at its peak, day-on-day.  Week-on-week demand was down 400 MW as well, however.

No 80-degree highs are in this week’s Burbank forecast, but consecutive 70-degree days are in store on the 2nd and 3rd.  Tomorrow’s low of 39 looks like the coolest over the next two weeks.

PV Demand

Once again, the Southwest is getting the brunt of winter weather in the west, at least in terms of deviation from normal.  Daily lows will fall into the mid to low 30’s for the next week, each coming in at roughly 10 degrees from average.  Highs will fail to top the 60-degree mark in the meantime as well.  The second-half of the forecast looks much warmer as the 7th may see a return of 70-degree highs.

Nuke Status

All six nukes remain generating at 100% capacity.

Renewables

SP-15 solar jumped to 5,100 MW on Wednesday, the first 5,000+ MW generation day in nearly two weeks.  Wind was able to tack on more than 2,000 MW in most hours as well, creating a lucrative renewable day for SP.

Mid-C wind has been subdued following the 20th’s 2,600 MW peak generation.  Yesterday topped out at just over 500 MW, while Christmas day failed to see even 30 MW hours.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO Gas outages were comparatively flat yesterday after recording a 130 MW drop.  Contrast that to the 1,000+ MW swings we saw last week.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

COI is holding TTC at 4,150 MW until 1700 tomorrow, that’s up from 3,850 that was projected as of last week.  Note the extreme drop that’s slated for the 7th when TTC falls to 3,365 MW.

NOB remains unchanged in the most recent projections.

 

 

 

Have a great day,

 

William

 

What’s a better Christmas present than a fresh STP update?

 

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• December – Down 1,895 aMW
• January – Down 172 aMW
• February – Down 96 aMW
• March – Down 385 aMW
• April – Up 998 aMW

This week’s update is highlighted by a massive 1,895 aMW reduction in December (though it comes with only a week remaining).  The 1,895 aMW decrease places the month well below each of the previous four forecasts.

January through March also saw cuts to their forecast, but all came at comparatively muted levels as March’s 385 aMW reduction topped the scale among the three forecasts.  April added back 998 aMW after last week’s 2,000 aMW cut.  Not to say we told you so, but Ansergy hinted that last week’s heavy cut seemed premature.

Daily

December fell off the charts immediately as the 25th showed up with a 2,700 aMW reduction, and the difference peaked again on the 31st at 2,200 aMW.  January through February held a 100-200 aMW difference through the entirety of each month, while the beginning of March introduced progressively larger differences, eventually leading to a 550 aMW difference by the 31st.  April brought immediate gains, peaking at 1,200 aMW by the 3rd, and maintained smaller differences through the forecast.

Year on Year

Cuts to December’s forecast has left the month mostly average compared to the rest of this century.  January through March, on the other hand, continue to pace behind their peers, while April shows the largest difference between its forecast and some of the heavy outliers (particularly 2018).

 

William

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

While the Easter-half of the country looks like they will be basking in a warmer than normal Christmas, the WECC is set for another cool down, especially the Great Basin and the Sierra Nevada.  The week following Christmas may be even cooler as the blue blog on Winter flows north into Mid-C to ring in the New Year.

Precipitation Forecast

Look for heavy precip stretching from the Southern Cascades to the Eastern edge of the Rockies as we move toward Christmas.  The rest of the west projects a wetter than normal precip total in over days 6-10, while the latter half of the forecast could revert to normal.  The real question is whether this precip will coincide with cool enough temps to make a noticeable impact on snowpack.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV DA prices have both come off considerably over the past week and are both showing similar peaks as well.  The 17th had a difference of just $3 at $74 and $71 respectively.  SP-NP showed a similar relationship with the same $74 and $71 prices on the 17th, though NP has fallen off a bit since.

Futures

Crude is desperately searching for its floor as it dropped another $2.20 yesterday and is now marking consecutive days under $50.  Crude managed a $1.00 gain by mid-day but that quickly evaporated as prices fell more than $3.00 in just a few hours.

Gas was up $0.21 to $3.72 yesterday, bucking the downward trend that was started on the 10th.

West Term Gas Prices

How low can it go?  January Sumas dropped $1.24 week-on-week and $0.55 day-on-day.  A mild start to the winter isn’t helping prices and without a significant cooldown in the forecast, that may not change significantly.

February had an even more dramatic change (at least in terms of percentages) as prices fell $1.11 week-on-week, or 23%.

Citygate is in the midst of its own freefall with prices dropping more than $2.50 week-on-week for January and $1.45 for February.

Gas Storage

It was mentioned in chat last night, but with Jackson Prairie’s 139 MMCF injection yesterday, the site topped any single-day injection from all of last winter.  Total storage is more than 1,400 MMCF higher than each of the last three years on the same date and roughly equivalent to what we saw in 2014.

Spot Gas

Sumas spot fell $0.39 day-on-day yesterday, relatively mild to what we saw last week, but still a significant drop.  AECO was the big mover in the other direction as it added $0.31 to its price after finishing at $1.69.

Sumas spot has nearly returned to a pre-explosion price.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Arrow has shed roughly 4.5′ since the 9th and has dropped below average for the first time in over a year.  The reservoir is now 12′ lower than it was on the same date last year.

Hungry Horse dropped below the average line for the first time since May, though its decrease is much more gradual than Arrow.  Hungry Horse is only a foot lower than it was last year, not quite the anomaly that we see in Arrow.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

While most of the low-level snow has melted (thanks to warm temps and rain), the higher elevated mountains were just cold enough to add significant snowpack.  The Cascades were able to cross the 50% of normal barrier while the Idaho and Montana Rockies are approaching 80% territory.  We could see normal levels approaching soon if the forecasted precip manages to hold true this week.

Snow Depth Summary

Wash West and Priest Rapids checked in with the largest week-on-week increase — each with over 2.5″.  Looking closer at the columns you may notice the totals fluctuating daily, showing how fragile the freezing level has been in these Mid-C storms.

Mid-C as an aggregate added 1.2″ over the past week.

Snow Depth Chart

Grand Coulee added enough snowpack over the past week to briefly cross 2018, though a warm day was enough to wipe out most gains.  Just to illustrate how an early-season lack of snowfall isn’t a harbinger of the rest of winter, I’ve added 2010 to the chart.  Notice as of today, 2010 would be leading both 2019 and 2018.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peak at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  We are seeing some convergence between Ansergy and the RFC for Apr-Sep in The Dalles.

 

Demand

 

Mid-C Demand

Christmas should mark the end of consistent above-normal hourly temps for Seattle, but until then we could see a variance of up to 8 degrees on the 10th with a balmy high of 51.  There isn’t a single hour of freezing temps in the current forecast.

Not surprisingly, Portland will be even warmer as the 20th shows a high of 54, ten degrees above normal.  Temps fail to drop below freezing in Portland as well.

Loads were off close to 200 MW yesterday and were down more than 2,000 MW week-on-week as mild temps blanketed the Northwest.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was up slightly yesterday compared to Monday but remained well below last week.  With mild temps in store for San Jose (highs in the 60’s through the 24th, and nightly lows consistently above 45), loads may stay in this range for another week at least.

Sacramento is holding onto several highs in the 60’s as well, though one day over the next 14 managed a sub-40 forecasted low.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand was mostly flat yesterday, maybe increasing 50 MW day-on-day.  There wasn’t much of a difference week-on-week either as just 100 MW made up the difference by most measurements.

All eyes are on Burbank’s impressive high of 82 on the 20th, 21 degrees above the previous 10-year high.  With lows in the 50’s, there isn’t much to drive demand this week.

The deserts are slightly cooler but are still forecasting highs in the upper-70’s through Christmas.

PV Demand

Phoenix is projecting highs in the 70’s through the 24th before temps drop off a cliff, bringing a high of just 55 on the 26th.  Despite daily highs dropping next week, lows are above normal in most cases as temps fail to fall below the high-40s.

Nuke Status

With CGS back at 100%, all six nukes are generating at 100% capacity once again.

Renewables

SP-15 solar dropped to just 3,300 MW on Monday, off from 4,800+ MW we saw over the previous six days and well below the 5,000+ Mw we saw generated consistently the week prior.

Mid-C wind was back above 1,000 MW yesterday after being mired in some slow generation days since the 15th.  Still a far cry from the 2,600 MW hourly peak we saw on the 12th.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO Gas outages was up 300 MW yesterday, reaching a total of 3,811 MW.  Despite the day-on-day increase, total outages are still 1,600 MW short of the total from last Friday.

ISO Outage Unit Data

Mountainview Gen Sta. Unit 4 was the main culprit for the outage increase though several other stations also contributed.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

COI marked two more changes this week as TTC runs 250 MW lower through 6 AM tomorrow.  Also note the large increase beginning on the 29th at 10 AM where TTC moves from 3,840 MW to 4,550 MW through the remainder of the Forecast.

NOB remains unchanged in the most recent projections.

 

 

 

Have a great day,

 

William

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

• December – Up 340 aMW
• January – Up  368 aMW
• February – Up  418 aMW
• March – Up  247 aMW
• April – Down 2,111 aMW

Increases across the board this week, albeit relatively modest in most cases.  December followed up last week’s addition with another 340 aMW tacked onto the forecast.  January had an almost equal 368 aMW increase, ending a two-week slide in the process.  February added 418 aMW and prevented the fourth-consecutive weekly decline in forecast.  March added a small 247 aMW jump to round out this week’s update.

APRIL NOTE: Though we only have data through the 16th, this is material, and bullish, change to that strip’s outlook – a cut of 2 gigs. We are less confident in their confidence; it’s so early in the water year to be making such drastic and draconian changes, especially in the face of the massive storm system that has already landed and will continue to pound the Northwest for another week.

Daily

December falls as far as 1,000 aMW behind last week’s forecast as of the 23rd, but make an even larger jump thereafter, climbing up to 1,400 aMW higher by the 26th.  January begins the month a few steps behind before maintaining a 500-700 aMW increase going into March, which, coincidentally, holds a similar pattern through the month as well.  April shows a massive drop to begin the month — 2,800 aMW as of the 3rd, though that tapers toward the end of the forecast.

Year on Year

This week’s update showed enough in the way of increases to at least look worth of being displayed on the same chart…save for April which fell further behind every year aside from 2010 and 2001.  With only half the month forecasted, it’s possible April could still see significant changes over the next couple weeks.

 

William