Good morning,
A hot Mid-C may get relief late next week, but that may just equate to a return to the mean. Elsewhere, Southern California looks to stay above normal for the foreseeable future, as does PV and most of NP.
It’s going to be dry everywhere, though PV may get a small dose of rain next week.
SP-PV spreads aren’t too far apart, but the prices are still going insane, though that’s the case everywhere.
SoCal-Citygate is following suit with gas prices shooting sky-high as well — up more than $10 week-on-week despite heavy increases last week as well.
It’s been well over a year since we’ve seen Citygate at levels like this.
August gas is showing no sign of coming down for both SoCal Citygate and SoCal Border which sit at $9.07 and $4.87 respectively.
SCG and Northern California storage are both running negative though the latter is most heavily below zero.
At 1,388,000 MCF, Northern California saw its most heavily drawn on storage day since February.
Portland will be in the 90’s through the 30th and top out at 97 on the 29th, 13 degrees above normal. Seattle won’t be as hot but still shows potential for new 10-year highs on both today and tomorrow, along with a year-long high of 92 on the 29th.
Yesterday’s loads didn’t quite reach what we saw on Monday where peak demand reached 24,053 MW, but loads remained elevated nonetheless.
Demand fell day-on-day yesterday in NP as well as Monday topped out at 18,508 MW (which was a 450 MW increase week-on-week). Off-peak loads increased 180 MW however as warm temperatures continue to build throughout the day and night.
San Jose projects a high of 86 today but will fall to a more sustainable 81 by the weekend. However, next week should bring more of the same heat we saw this week. Sacramento will top out in the triple digits today and much of next week as well.
SP demand increased day on day, topping even Monday’s high of 26,970 MW, a week-on-week increase of 3,300 MW.
Back into the triple digits in Burbank today with a forecasted high of 103, 10 degrees above the previous ten-year high. There isn’t much relief in sight either, tomorrow tops out at 101 and the lowest high through the remainder of the month only falls to 93. Palm Springs gets a scorching 120 today and falls below 110 just once over the next week.
Phoenix shows a high of 112 today, nine degrees above normal and two degrees warmer than the previous ten-year high. Temps will fall to 103 over the weekend but climb closer to 110 all next week.
Peak demand increased day-on-day yesterday following Monday’s peak at 18,506 MW. Off-peak demand increased more than 550 MW as well, setting up for an even larger day today.
All plants remain at 100% capacity as of today.
SP-15 gas noms have bounced back following last week’s 230,000 MCF free-fall. Mid-C is holding pace at 811,000 MCF, its highest level since December.
SP saw a good mix of solar and wind generation yesterday, just in time for rapidly increasing loads. Wind topped out at 2,775 overnight while solar hit 6,700, down from 6,900 on Sunday.
Mid-C wind hit a stagnant streak beginning on the 19th and it has carried over into this week for the most part. Today’s peak wind generation hit just 1,246 MW.
ISO gas outages jumped to 1,263 MW yesterday, down from Monday’s low of 862.
Hydro
Libby is still filling after adding nearly a foot over the past week. Grand Coulee is holding steady while Hungry Horse has dropped six inches.
No spill in GCL while the elevation sits 1.5′ below average.
340 MW will be shaved off the COI line on the 6th at 8 AM PDT.
Have a wonderful day,
William