Good afternoon,
Southern California is projecting mostly normal temps over the next two weeks and is standing out as the only region to do so. The Northwest is particularly warmer during the first seven days compared to the latter week, while the rest of the West holds on to a 40% chance of above-normal temps.
The Northwest is showing dryer than normal projections over the next two weeks, especially this week. Utah has a chance for additional precip, while the rest of the west is hanging on to normal.
Three dollars of congestion yesterday for SP-PV, while SP-NP showed two dollars.
AECO recovered compared to last week as it settled at $0.60, up $0.19 from last Wednesday. SoCal-Citygate is down $0.43 week-on-week, but up $0.22 from the weekend. Northwest Sumas looks like the next hub to crash following a three-day drop of $0.38 after today’s price of $0.76.
Gas is mostly flat after raising less than a cent this morning, while crude is up $0.20 since midnight.
PV gas demand fell to 1,368 MMCF today, a decrease of 35 MMCF since yesterday. Mid-C demand continues to plummet after hitting 1,078 MMCF today, a 100 MMCF decrease since Monday.
Seattle is projecting a high of 65 today and just 59 tomorrow but will see temps rise quickly thereafter as the 13th calls for a high of 80 (16 degrees above normal) and a new 10-year high. Temps are expected to drop back to normal soon after.
Demand increased 633 MW yesterday in the daily average, but still fell 900 MW short week-on-week. Yesterday’s light load hours saw an increase of more than 600 MW day-on-day while peak load had a more modest 300 MW increase.
Sacramento shows highs in the upper 70’s today but will jump back into the high 80’s by the weekend. Temps are expected to stay above normal throughout the three-week forecast, but especially so over the next 10 days.
San Jose will take a quick leap into the 80’s over the weekend as well, but 70’s should fill the forecast though all of next week.
Demand jumped 380 MW day-on-day yesterday, as off-peak minimum loads jumped 650 MW and max hourly loads increased 250 MW. Demand is up 680 MW week-on-week in the daily average.
SP demand stayed increased 280 MW day-on-day yesterday thanks to off-peak minimum loads jumping 380 MW. Peak demand increased 210 MW as well, reaching the 2nd-highest hourly demand in the past two weeks.
Burbank projects a high of 85 today, nine degrees above normal, and a high of 82 tomorrow, but temps will fall back below normal by the weekend as a high of just 71 is in store for Saturday. 80’s could return by late next week.
Two more days of triple digits for Phoenix as today and tomorrow check in with highs of 104, both 12 degrees above normal. Saturday brings a reprieve in temps as a high of just 92 is forecasted. 90’s should be the name of the game until late next week.
Demand was nearly virtually flat in day-on-day daily average as just a 6 MW increase was recorded. Hourly demand showed a little more variance, however, as peak demand jumped over 500 MW, while minimum demand fell more than 200 MW.
Today marks the complete return of PV3 and the first time all six plants are at 100% in several weeks.
SP gas noms are fell 87,000 MCF day-on-day today and marking the lowest level of the month in the process. PV gas noms moved in the opposite direction with an 80.000 MCF bounce-back from yesterday.
Much of the decrease can be attributed to Sunrise Power LLC coming off 66,000 MCF.
NP Wind peaked at 1,204 MW yesterday, the highest generation in over four weeks, more than making up for the 100 MW day-on-day decrease in solar. Solar fell in SP as well, dropping a more dramatic 600 MW day-on-day.
Hydro
Western Montana is still holding the flag for precip totals, but Seattle checks in with nearly a quarter-inch today. Potential for a larger system moving in late next week as well.
The precip system in Mid-C coincides with precip in California next week as well, though nothing more than a tenth of an inch.
Minimum daily temps remain consistently above normal for all three NP stations, especially in Tahoe where temps are no longer showing anything below freezing.
Clark Fork changed course over the weekend and is starting to take off with a current reading at 83,950 CFS, more than 60% higher than last week. Wenatchee saw a similar movement after checking in at 16,900 CFS today, more than double the rate since last Friday.
Spokane is also increasing, though still shy of 10-year highs at 24,500 CFS.
Spokane ramping up flows with Coeur d’Alene rapidly filling up means there is a lot of water moving in quickly.
Grand Coulee added a foot over the course of Monday, but saw a huge spike yesterday and currently sits at 1,225 ft. All other reservoirs continue to fill at their previous pace.
While Spokane had the largest and most sudden increase all five rivers saw flows increase massively week-over-week.
Yesterday made a heavy dent in most stations as we are well into the sensitive time of the year with regards to anomalies. Most stations still sit well north of 100% of normal, but we are seeing sub-100’s trickle in as the spring heat makes its mark.
This is a five-day comparison of snow cover.
Smooth increases for both the 10-Day and STP as aMW ramp up through the forecast. STP paced ahead for all days moving into next week.
Transmission
Recent changes to TTC coming in late-night on the 20th for both lines. COI is shedding 350 MW, while COB knocks off 110 MW from TTC.
Energy Oracle
For those of you unfamiliar with Energy Oracle, the following description had been included in the automated Oracle emails we have been running. Note: Oracle will now be included in our daily blogs instead.
In a thinly traded market, the opportunities are many, the time horizon to execute (either spec or hedge) is narrow. Ansergy scours 388 potential execution opportunities several times a day and ranks all of those against each other. We call that process “APT” – Algorithmic Power Trading, and yes, this has been used with a real book, and yes again, it does work. You can view APT from a hub, derivative, hour type, or compare all opportunities against each other (we call this the ‘WECC’ level).
In this report, we summarize the term markets for quarters (Prompt Q out two years) for all four derivative types (Outrights, Locational Spreads, Period Rolls, and On|Off). From that expansive list of opportunities, we will cull a few that looked intriguing. Ansergy does not make execution recommendations, we simply highlight execution opportunities. In the tables and charts that follow we will cast light upon a couple that caught our eye. We suggest you examine your firm’s exposure to that product (or lack thereof) and draw your own conclusions.
Note on Hedging vs Speculation: we view the hedger’s (Utility, End User, Generator) decision-making process being the same as the Speculator. In other words, APT is equally apt for either user type since both are driven by the same goal of capturing the best price.
Here are today’s notable charts, derived from the APT Summary rankings.
Near low for the SP-MC HL spread in October 2018. Ansergy called for a buy with strong sentiment.
Ansergy has been calling for a buy since May 1st.
Every trade has a PID (product ID) that can be called within the APT History table linked above, the one depicted is PID 628. Hindsight is 20/20, but this at least gives you an idea of how often the recommendation has been correct.
Have a wonderful day,
William