Good afternoon,
Temps are set to warm up considerably over the next seven days, especially in the Great Basin, but will finally extend into the Northwest as well. The following week shows a return to slightly above normal for most of the West though heat will linger in Utah particularly.
Not only are temps pushing north of average, but precipitation is expected to drop below normal as well. The Northern Cascades in particular are forecasting dry over the next seven days.
Most hubs remained relatively unchanged over the past three days, but AECO stands out with its $0.30 increase at 36%.
SoCal continues to bounce between 2000-2500 MMCF. Northwest and Southwest are moving in opposite directions, up and down, respectively. Mid-C has shed 384 MMCF since the 15th.
Seattle lows should stay below normal through the weekend but will still amount to temps in the low 40’s — nothing falling into the 30s. Next week has potential for a return to mid-60s.
Average daily demand is pacing close to 300 MW behind last week.
Demand fell 62 MW day on day in the daily average and is down over 500 MW week-on-week.
Mild temps for Sacramento today at 64, but a warming pattern is on the way as highs in the mid-80s are in store for next week. Temps should stay above 50 as night as well.
SP demand is rising, unlike its northern neighbors. Average daily loads increased 110 MW day-on-day as off-peak demand jumped more than 400 MW.
Burbank forecasts 80-degree highs beginning this weekend but a return to low-70’s by next week. Daily lows are expected to stay above normal for all but one day over the next three weeks.
We should see a mild end to the week in Phoenix but a strong warm up beginning next week. Temps should sustain 90+ degrees for the next work-week and peak in the high-90’s.
Demand increased 250 MW day-on-day yesterday but remains well short of levels seen last week.
Last week’s wild ride appears over as all but one plant has returned to 100%. PV3 remains offline at 0%.
Very sharp day-on-day increase in Mid-C as gas noms moved from 152,006 MCF to 362,849 MCF. Yesterday marked a two-month low.
SP solar increased 1,200 MW day-on-day yesterday though Monday’s deficiency was more than replaced by a 1,700 MW increase in wind generation.
Mid-C wind tied an hourly generation high at 3,862 MW yesterday. Generation remained heavy for most of the day overall as well.
Another quiet day for ISO gas outages as all hubs remained relatively unchanged.
Hydro
NOAA’s dry forecast is reflected here as no Northwest station is projecting more than a tenth on an inch of precip until the 28th. April had been wet until this point, will be interesting to see how the month averages out if the forecast holds true.
Nearly bone-dry in NP as well.
Tahoe is going to heat up considerably over the next few days as daily highs move from the low 40’s today and tomorrow, to sustained mid-60s into the weekend.
Spokane River is marking new highs in flows beginning yesterday and the runoff has yet to begin in earnest. The Pend Oreille is trending north as well as flows are making a strong deviation from average.
Dworshak added nearly 2.1′ over the past day and Grand Coulee’s dropped 1.1′ from its elevation levels.
Grand Coulee added another two percentage points to its anomaly totals while Ice Harbor moves the opposite direction – leaving 3 percentage points on the table.
Flathead’s anomaly took a big hit this week, falling from 226% last Wednesday to 160% today. Clark Fork fell 30 percentage-points week-on-week to 162%, marking the second largest movement in that span of time. most other hubs managed to increase their anomaly figures.
The STP forecast is pacing ahead of the 10-Day for each of the next four days then switches position thereafter. Both call for a low around the 22nd of April before increasing through the end of the ten days.
Hydro continues to fall after peaking last week though HL Max is relatively holding its ground.
Transmission
BPA – COI calls for a drop in TTC beginning at 8 AM on the 23rd and sustained through 16hr on the same day. TTC should drop from a previously forecasted 4654 MW to 3500 MW.
Energy Oracle
For those of you unfamiliar with Energy Oracle, the following description had been included in the automated Oracle emails we have been running. Note: Oracle will now be included in our daily blogs instead.
In a thinly traded market, the opportunities are many, the time horizon to execute (either spec or hedge) is narrow. Ansergy scours 388 potential execution opportunities several times a day and ranks all of those against each other. We call that process “APT” – Algorithmic Power Trading, and yes, this has been used with a real book, and yes again, it does work. You can view APT from a hub, derivative, hour type, or compare all opportunities against each other (we call this the ‘WECC’ level).
In this report, we summarize the term markets for quarters (Prompt Q out two years) for all four derivative types (Outrights, Locational Spreads, Period Rolls, and On|Off). From that expansive list of opportunities, we will cull a few that looked intriguing. Ansergy does not make execution recommendations, we simply highlight execution opportunities. In the tables and charts that follow we will cast light upon a couple that caught our eye. We suggest you examine your firm’s exposure to that product (or lack thereof) and draw your own conclusions.
Note on Hedging vs Speculation: we view the hedger’s (Utility, End User, Generator) decision-making process being the same as the Speculator. In other words, APT is equally apt for either user type since both are driven by the same goal of capturing the best price.
Here are today’s notable charts, derived from the APT Summary rankings.
PV – Heavy Load 2018-07:
Palo Verde Heavy Load HeatRate 2018-Q3
NP15 Heavy Load HeatRate 2019-Q3
Mid-C Light Load HeatRate 2018-06
Enjoy the rest of your week,
William