STP Update

Good Morning,

Today’s installment of the weekly NWRFC’s “STP” brought more surprises. Let’s dive in …

Energy Scorecard

  • April – Up 900 aMW
  • May – Up 130 aMW
  • June – Up 350 aMW
  • July – Up 900 aMW
  • Aug – Up 130 aMW

Up, up, and away. What other direction could it have gone? Snow built and melt was deferred, of course all bullets must rally.


Mostly its the same forecast, except for the cuts at the end of June (huh?) and a bit extra water in July.

Year on Year

In this view, we break out each month and show the last 15 years of actual water. A couple of takeaways:

  • May and June are approaching records
  • July and August are dwarfed by 2011-12

Let’s drill down by day:

In this view, we plot the current STP (2018) versus 2012, one of the years that “Dwarfed” 2018. Note how much more July water there was in 12 than the projected 18. This is why we think July may be reset by an additional 5k MW, over and above the current forecast. Of course, that would crush the term bullet, its cleared heat rate would be about 7500.