Good afternoon,
Here are today’s highlights.
Demand
Peak demand fell just 35 MW day-on-day yesterday, though daily average demand managed to increase 10 MW. Despite the daily increases, week-on-week demand fell 430 MW in average daily loads.
Peak demand increased 34 MW day-on-day, and average daily loads followed suit with a 190 MW increase of its own, largely thanks to higher demand in the off-peak hours. Demand is down 160 MW week-on-week.
Mid-C demand plummeted yesterday as the daily average shed nearly 750 MW day-on-day. Peak demand was off just shy of 1,100 MW as well. Dramatic daily decreases aside, average daily demand was up 550 MW week-on-week.
Weather
If you aren’t in Montana you should expect warmer than normal aggregate temps over the next ten days, and significantly so in most stations. All four SP15 stations show anomalies greater than four degrees, while NP15 shifts even warmer as San Jose and Sacramento push north of six degrees.
New ten-year highs for San Jose from today through the 30th as temps are expected to top out at 81 on Friday, 14 degrees above normal. Highs will make a slow decline from there but aren’t projected to fall below normal for at least ten days.
Sacramento won’t reach the 81 degree high that we see projected in San Jose, but high 70’s are still in order through the weekend, topping out at 79 on the 31st (12 degrees above normal). March looks to finish well above normal while the beginning of April shows a significant bump over yesterday’s forecast as the 3rd increased seven degrees overnight.
Phoenix will reach 90 or above five times over the next week and eventually top out at 92 on the 31st, 11 degrees above normal. This mini-heatwave hasn’t started, however, as today projects a high of 81, just one degree above normal. Aside from what looks like a source error on the 10th, every day projects a high above normal through all 21 days.
There won’t be any 10-year highs set in the foreseeable future, but Burbank should be consistently 8+ degrees above normal through Saturday, with tomorrow’s high of 80 setting the peak. The next week shows highs a couple degrees warmer than projected yesterday.
Much less excitement in the Northwest where Seattle is mired with mid to low-50’s for the next couple weeks, aside from a single day of 61 on the 5th. So where did the above-average daily aggregate forecast come from?
The mins, of course! Seattle projects lows consistently above normal, and considerably above yesterday’s forecast through the weekend.
Portland’s lows are much warmer than Seattle’s as next week could see a bottom of just 50, 11 degrees above normal. In terms of daily highs, there are four days projected to reach 60 over the next ten days, with just one expected to approach 65 (31st).
We’re keeping an eye out for a 70-degree day in the Inland Northwest, anything to kick the runoff into gear, but the forecast isn’t giving any hints of that in the near-future. There aren’t even 60-degree days projected until well into April.
Denver’s highs will rise from 49 today (a five-degree decrease from yesterday’s forecast) to low-70’s by the beginning of next week. The weekend through the 5th all mark considerable increases from yesterday’s projections, especially the 5th with a 12 degree bump.
Salt Lake City begins a steep increase in daily highs after today’s 57, leading to nearly six-straight days of 70+ highs, topping out at 73 on the 3rd, 16 degrees above normal. Temps may fall off the shelf beginning on the 4th, but it’s far enough out to not write it in stone.
Generation
ISO renewables continued their strong output yesterday, combining for a peak generation of nearly 10,000 MW. Yesterday marked the fifth-consecutive day of 9,000+ MW generation for wind and solar combined.
Mid-C has seen consistent wind generation for the past two days, never dropping below 1,700 in a single hourly-aggregate. Generation ramped up this morning, topping out at 3,300 MW.
Hydro
The 10-Day forecast is expected to top out tomorrow at 14,462 aMW before falling as low as 13,306 by the 3rd. The STP expects a peak a day later and much higher with 15,014 aMW on the 30th.
The Northwest hubs are holding on tight to their above-average snow years as all three sit comfortably above normal, especially Montana with more than 5″ in snow anomaly. NP made up solid ground over the past two weeks with an additional 3″ but remains 4″ short of average and less than half of what we saw last year.
With nary a glimpse of 70-degree days in sight, Mid-C will have an opportunity to quickly climb above most of the years in the chart over the next couple weeks as many peaked around the end of March.
Transmission
Average daily flow increased for the second consecutive day and finished at 2,663 MW yesterday, peaking at 4,192 MW late last night, the highest hourly flow of the week.
Daily averages show consistent flow into BC as each of the past seven days balanced above 0 MW. There are still at least a couple hours each day that show power flowing south from BC, but even those hours are climbing closer to neutral.
Have a great week,
William