Ansergy Gas Fundamental Update
Good afternoon,
Markets
All hubs remain well below their marks from last week (especially Stanfield after shedding 25%), but the difference from the last couple days is much more subtle as is close to a 50/50 split between increases and decreases. One of the largest day-on-day movers came from Northwest Sumas with a $0.12 decrease. Compare the week-on-week Northwest Sumas results for even more dramatic movement with a $0.72 decline.
Weather
Burbank is set to fall from a high of 80 today to just 63 by Monday, five degrees below normal and five degrees below yesterday’s projections. Highs could stay below normal through Wednesday, and may stay there through the remainder of the month save for a couple days late next week.
Salt Lake gained a couple degrees in the latest forecast and will stay consistently above average through the 20th. Look for lows to peak at 47 on the 17th, 21 degrees above normal and 13 degrees warmer than yesterday’s projections.
Sacramento’s coolest temps in the forecast come in tomorrow at 37 degrees, four below normal and five degrees cooler than yesterday’s forecast. Lows should hover above and below normal for the following two weeks with nothing extreme in the near future.
The 12th marks the low point in Seattle as temps are set to fall to 30, six degrees below normal and two degrees cooler than the 10-year low of 32. Daily lows will quickly raise from there however, eventually reaching 44 by the 16th, eight above normal.
Northwest Gas Fundamentals
Demand is projected to jump over 250 MMCF over the next two days, reversing the fall we’ve seen since the beginning of the month. On the intertie level, Puget Demand increased 126,000 MCF day-on-day, while NWP: Chehalis fell 110,000 MCF.
Storage took a huge dive day-on-day, dropping from -123,647 MCF yesterday to -463,106 MCF today.
WECC Interior Fundamentals
Palo Verde demand is projected to rise another 20 MMCF to 1,501 by the 11th. That would equate to a 170 MMCF increase since the 1st.
Southern California
SoCal Gas Report
Total system demand increased 110,000 MCF day-on-day, still 350,000 MCF short of demand from one week ago. Storage increased over 250,000 MCF day-on-day, and has added 570,000 MCF since last week, or more than 16,000,000 MCF compared to the same date last year.
Needles looks to have fully recovered from the latest shutdown, but it is still just 31% from its levels in September.
Week-on-week declines have put SCG demand at the lowest levels since mid-November.
Northern California
PGE Gas Report
On System demand fell 54,000 MCF day-on-day as Demand – Core and Demand – Elec dropped 26,000 and 45,000 respectively day-on-day (those declines were partially erased by a 17,000 MCF increase in Industrial demand). Intertie – GTNW increased another 19,000 MCF, pushing the week-on-week increase to 142,000 MCF.
While core demand dropped day-on-day that movement was basically noise as demand mains relatively flat compared to the past two months.
Storage fell 12,000 MCF day-on-day, continuing the up and down trend we’ve seen over the past week.
Have a wonderful weekend,
William