STP Update

Good Morning,


Energy Scorecard

  • January – Up 1,213 aMW
  • February – Up 283 aMW
  • March – Down 747 aMW
  • April – Up 329 aMW

January increased another 1,213 aMW, and now 1,741 aMW higher than what was forecasted four weeks ago.  February showed a modest increase after dropping last week, while March took another steep decline, dropping 747 aMW, and 1,763 aMW total over the previous two weeks.  April again increased, moving up another 329 aMW.


January’s increases begin in earnest on the 8th and extend through the remainder of the month before seeing February fall to just slightly above last week’s forecast.  March shows modest drops for the first half of the month followed by a steep drop on the 20th.  April shows most of the month behind last week before the tail end of the forecast pushes ahead.

Year on Year 

BOM appears wet, bigger than any of the last four water years which is hard to reconcile given how much early precip landed in the fall of 2016; plus loads were much higher last January than today. March looks on the low side, but bear in mind the March 2017 forecast in the above table was as of the first week of January. The NWRFC missed by a mile on that date for March 2017; that month was colossal. April is projected to have more energy equivalents than last year, and not by just a small amount. Hard to reconcile that with where the two years sit snowpack-wise in the first week of Jan.