Good Morning,
Looks for above-normal temps everywhere in the west, perhaps other than Southern Arizona as it shows a 40% chance of below-normal temps. The highest variance from mean temps looks concentrated over the Great Basin.
The Northwest is particularly dry while Arizona continues to show signs of precip through summer storms.
LMP spreads are less tight this week in SP-PV, and especially so for NO-Captain Jack.
Crude keeps on climbing, now sitting well above $72.00 in continuation, though mostly flat in real time trading yesterday. Gas ranged as much as seven cents yesterday, climbing as high at $2.87 and as low as $2.80.
Total system demand for SCG fell 280,000 MCF yesterday.
Southern California storage reached its highest storage additions since early June with 430,000+ MCF on the 3rd.
Portland looks to top out at 84 today, four degrees above normal, while Seattle shows a high of 82, seven above normal. Things heat up quickly as you move east where Spokane projects a high of 93.
Tuesday’s peak demand fell 600 MW short of the previous Tuesday, though that’s closer than Monday’s 900 MW week-on-week drop.
Light load demand was down over 500 MW yesterday and peak load followed a similar path. Tuesday came up 1,100 MW short of the previous week with a peak demand of just 15,056.
San Jose shows daily highs above normal throughout the forecast, especially moving into the 14th where temps soar into the upper-90’s. Sacramento is predictably warmer as the 14th projects a high of 108.
Off peak loads fell 450 MW yesterday compared to Tuesday, and heavy loads came up short as well. Tuesday’s daily average finished down slightly week-on-week after shedding 170 MW.
Burbank is still preparing for its first major heat wave of the summer with Friday’s projected high of 109, an incredible 24 degrees above normal. That won’t be sustained, but we should see triple digits moving into the weekend as well. San Diego will reach 92, 20 degrees above normal, and surely much hotter as you move inland.
Phoenix shows a high of 112 today and highs above 110 through Saturday. highs could fall below normal again by the 9th.
Vegas will be a few degrees cooler over today, but still reach 111 by Friday, enough for eight degrees above normal.
Demand increased again day-on-day; demand has risen every consecutive day this week in both peak and daily average.
PV3 continues to ramp back up after showing signs of life on the 1st.
Mid-C gas noms soared to their highest levels since February while the other four hubs mostly held ground.
Mid-C wind has had fairly heavy generation since the 28th of June and this week was no exception with peak generation reaching 3,561 MW on the 2nd.
SP solar continues to top out above 7,000 MW.
ISO gas outages fell to just 912 MW yesterday, the lowest total since at least September.
Hydro
Upper Columbia side-flows have tapered off at just above 7,500 CFS. Meanwhile, the Columbia at the border showed steady increases over the past day with flows peaking at 14,500 CFS.
The Upper Snake side-flow is dangerously close to setting a new 10-year low in flow with just 200 CFS to spare before hitting the mark.
Grand Coulee is still holding steady at 1,286 ft while Dworshak is showing signs of trailing off a bit after shedding half a foot yesterday. Hungry Horse and Libby remain filling.
Transmission
No changes in TTC for either line this week.
Have a wonderful day,
William