STP Update

Good Morning,

The NWRFC released it’s 120-day forecast yesterday, here is our take:

Monthly Energy

Energy Scorecard

  • October – down 600 aMW
  • November – down 100 aMW
  • December – up 230 aMW
  • January – up 1600 aMW …. whoa!

It looks like the RFC is reading our blog, this was our comment from last week on Jan 18:

So why so bullish; look at Jan, like 1500 aMW below any of the other years. There is no reason, aside from the RFC has a bad habit of trending the front into the back. As water tightened out of a very big year (Feb-July), it has allowed its forecast to become too tight going into a fresh water year. They know nothing about January, aside from that it follows December. We know something, we know reservoirs are slightly above normal at Mid-C and way above normal in BC, so why the tight water? Expect big upward revisions on these over the weeks to come.

Now they’ve reversed themselves, fixed their error in one fell swoop. Congrats, NWRFC.

Daily Energy

The current forecast is mostly like last week’s, aside from the cuts in the front and the reversal on the back. Note the Oct stays very tight throughout the month, half of the month won’t have the DC.  Unless BPA needs the water, we’d expect the first two weeks of Nov to be backed down as the line doesn’t return until Nov 15.

Year on Year


This is interesting. Aside from January, every month is lower than the previous four years. With reservoirs normal, it is hard to justify and we are expecting upward revisions at some point.