Good Morning,
Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.
Demand
SP-15 loads continued sharp growth for the second consecutive day, adding 1,602 MW day-on-day. This also puts SP 5,519 MW on top of Sunday, and up nearly 6,500 MW week-on-week. The daily average is also unsurprisingly up as well — 2,600 MW above the two-week average.
Mid-C showed a modest increase yesterday as loads peaked at 1,600 MW above last week’s high, and roughly 500 MW higher than the day before. The daily average pushed 1,700 MW north of the two-week average as well.
NP demand pushed as high as 21,065 MW on Monday night, but peaked at just 18,913 yesterday, an 11% drop. Loads were still elevated enough yesterday to equate to a 1,874 increase week-on-week, and more than 4,000 MW above last year.
Loads have been relatively steady in PV, at least compared to the previous hubs. Demand came off 192 MW yesterday from Monday, and peaked at 500 MW higher year-on-year. Yesterday also saw the daily average finish 750 MW higher than the two-week average.
Weather
As the summary suggest, summer isn’t ready to begin waning in the West as every selected station is forecasting above normal average temperatures over the next ten days. Mid-C and NP-15 lead the way as several stations push 10+ degrees above normal.
Brace yourself if you’re in San Jose as September is set to introduce itself with triple-digit highs on consecutive days. The 1st could reach 101, 19 degrees above normal, while the 2nd will cool off just a degree to peak at 100. From there, a very gradual cool off should follow, eventually leading to normal temps by the 8th, but until then, expect steady highs in the 90s.
Sacramento’s forecast is still holding well above normal, though the front end was adjusted one or two degrees warmer. Ultimately this equates to a high of 107 on the 1st, 17 degrees above normal, and 6 degrees above the previous 10-year high. Daily highs should stay in the upper half of the 90s until potentially the 9th of September.
While Northern California has a day or two to ramp up to triple digits, SP15 is already there as today is expected to peak at 107. Although highs are expected to come off a bit following today, it won’t be enough to escape triple digits as those are expected to persist until the 3rd of September. Despite the massive highs scattered over the next week, only today is expected to equate to a new 10-year high.
Not all weather centers are on board with this projection, but for those that are, look out for a fairly large momentous in Phoenix weather beginning late next week as daily highs could potentially fall 10 degrees, and land back into the 90s.
A lot of 80+ degree days in the forecast for Seattle, particularly moving into this weekend as Saturday is projected 5 degrees above normal at 82. The forecast is punctuated with a high of 87 on the 4th, potentially 10 degrees above normal. If it holds true that would equate to five degrees below normal, contrasted to five degrees above normal today.
Mid-C will get its share of hot weather beginning tomorrow (at least for Portland), and eventually leading to a high of 96 by the 2nd (18 degrees above normal). With highs adjusted up several degrees for the 4th, we could see five consecutive days with highs in the 90s.
Seattle isn’t likely to reach 90, but the current forecast calls for a significant bump over the next week, particularly on the 4th as it was increased 6 degrees from yesterday’s forecast. Highs are expected to stay above normal until the 10th of September.
The other side of the Rockies looks a bit more isolated from the warm front, though highs could still jump ten degrees above normal by the 3rd. While the normal high begins a sharp drop (falling six degrees over the next three weeks), a trend line of the forecasted highs is likely to follow a similar path.
Water Supply
STP’s sharp increases to the back end of August are reflected in the 10-Day forecast as well, though by September that all but disappears. September also marks the beginning of small, but steady increases. The 2nd calls for 7,921 aMW and should grow to 8,408 by the 7th.
Outages
Total ISO gas outages increased roughly 900 MW over the past week bringing up the total to 3,134 MW. Hydro added another 300 MW of outages during the same span of time while wind managed to halve its outages and drop to 212 MW.
Generation
CGS remains at 0%, having done so since the 23rd. No other nukes have fallen below 100% since DC2’s 3% drop on the 25th.
Transmission
MC-NP average daily flows have hovered between 2,000 – 2,300 MW for the past five days since coming off from 2,866 MW last Thursday. With hourly flows failing to fall below 1,800 MW yesterday coupled with a high of 3,346 MW, the average daily flow managed to increase more than 200 MW overall.
Pretty wild swings yesterday as Mid-C loads went wild. Flow peaked headed south at 7 PM last night with 2,953 MW, but that was followed up quickly with a 1,900 MW swing to average 1,000 MW at 10 PM. Despite that sharp flow at 7 PM, the average daily flow moved from -1,875 MW to -1,643 MW.
Have a great week,
William