Good Afternoon,
Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the West.
Weather
The next ten days are forecasted to be warmer than normal in all but two stations (and one hub). Northern Rockies look to be the warmest as Billings is forecasting average temps at more than 8 degrees above normal. At the Hub level, both NP and SP are forecasting average temps at 4+ degrees above normal.
While the current NP-15 forecast suggests a peak on the 1st at 77 degrees (10 degrees above normal), the following day could actually set a ten-year record at 75 degrees.
Though max temps are forecasting at ten-year highs, Minimum NP-15 temps are the primary driver in overall above-normal average temps over the next ten days. Each of the next ten days are predicted to be well above normal
No records are expected to be set in SP-15 in the foreseeable future (though today should come within a degree), but max temps will be above normal through April 8th, and each day will peak well within the 70’s.
Much like NP-15, SP will also have above-normal minimum temperatures for the next couple weeks. Minimum temps are forecasted to peak on the 5th at 57 degrees, nearly 8 degrees above normal.
Taking a peak at a less aggregated scale (hub-level) with Burbank and you can see that while temps will be well above normal when averaged, the overall weather will be relatively mild with just a single day forecasted above 80 (tomorrow at 85) and virtually no rain in the forecast.
Water Supply
Grand Coulee dropped to 50% of capacity since the weekend after decreases leveled off for most of last week (capacity remained at 55% from the 13th through the 21st).
With the additional draw over the past few days, Grand Coulee reservoir is now at a lower level than each of the past three years on the same date (2014: 60%, 2015: 53%, 2016: 53%).
Rivers with a lower week-over-week CFS are highlighted in tan, quickly allowing you to see the early season runoff might be slowing down a bit. The largest increases are coming from Grand Coulee (+23,000 CFS week-over-week, and 12,000 day-over-day), and Willamette (+6000 CFS week-over-week).
Just one of the 25 hydro basins are reporting under 100% of normal thus far into the snow year — Pend Oreille at 99.28%. NP and SP basins still sit comfortably above normal as each have basins north of 200%.
The 10 Day River Forecast is showing a slightly lower forecast on the 31st and 5th compared to yesterday, but otherwise increases across the next 10 days. Tomorrow could reach 27,913 MW, the highest in the forecast as each of the following days is showing decreases.
Outages
Much of the 800 MW of gas outage added last Friday has returned online (now at 3578 MW, down from 4,075 on the 24th). In the same span of time, all Solar outages returned online, and 80 MW of hydro was reported as an outage.
Transmission
No changes in TTC as it has held steady at 3300 MW for the last week. Flow has moved quite a bit over the last couple days after hitting a low on the 26th at 910 MW, and reporting a high of 3124 earlier today. The seven day rolling average is currently at 2294 MW.
Just a small uptick in TTC on the 25th as it increased 50 MW. Flow has made a steady increase in daily average each of the last seven days finishing at 1326 MW yesterday, up from -233 just six days before. The weekly average finished at 715 MW.
Have a great week,
William