STP Update – Nov 2

Good Afternoon,

The NWRFC released this week’s STP late this afternoon and, as expected and previously foretold this morning, is slightly bearish for BOM, neutral for the other months:


One can’t, or shan’t, be too surprised by the forecast given their 10 day energy rally over the last couple of days.  To put this in perspective let’s look at that 10 day:


The back end of this short term forecast is slightly bearish but most of the new water is added to the first three days – indicative of rain-driven stream flow surges.   This point is further illustrated in the daily plot of STP energy:


The shape looks flaky, at least to me, given the plateau of energy in the first half of November, and suggests that days 6-15 are just a wild guess on their part.  I find it laughable that BPA would allow a surge of water in mid-Nov given a forecast of mild temps in advance of who knows what in December.

The year on year puts that point into perspective:


All four months of the current forecast are trailing the previous four years for the same months, which is how it should be … reservoirs are lower now than they were then.   The only issue I have with this plot is the Nov/Dec split; I’d be more comfortable seeing Dec over Nov; it has been that way in most years, and should especially be that way this year as BPA husbands its scarce water.

So chalk up this week’s forecast as bearish front end of BOM and neutral the rest.  I expect more volatility coming.