Mike’s Take – Sep 14

Good Morning,


A bearish good morning to you all as the northwest sees temperatures plunge 20-30 degrees and a material rain event hits the region.  001_MidCwx

Even the east side gets wet, Boise looks to pick up over a 1/2 inch, a lot for Idaho in September.  The south shares in this bearish change with both NP and SP seeing cooler temperatures and rain … well rain in southern Cal as our forecast shows no precip at San Jose (I find this strange and suspect a bad forecast …hard to see how you can have rain in LA and rain in Portland and no rain in the bay area).


Today is STP day and we are anxious to view their handiwork and suspect a bump in Sep-Oct over last week’s numbers.  They have already jacked up their 10 day, for the last three forecasts, and given the rain, the dearth of demand et al we see bigger STP #s:


The Mid-C bulls were bitterly disappointed over last week’s failed “heat wave” – it just wasn’t hot enough and the evening temps were too low.  Proof of this is how BPA managed the Coulee pond:


Flows through the turbines rallied … up maybe 30k average … but look what happened to the reservoir … nothing.  Sure, they pulled a foot but nothing more.  Truth is BPA didn’t need the energy though California did:

001_Caloads 001_NWloads

California realized a 10,000 MW peak rally while the northwest was barely able to muster 2,000.  All that heat wave did for the Mid-C was remind everyone of the summer that could have been, but wasn’t.

Powerex enjoyed selling into the Mid-C mini-rally and really enjoyed the Cal rally by nearly filling the line southbound last week:



And then there is wind, that hapless resource which always seems to rear its clean head when you least need it.  Now that the “heat wave” is over we are comforted to see wind energy spike back to 4000 MW in the northwest: