Ansergy has made a few changes over the weekend that we believe will enhance the value you receive from the service. This post will outline those changes:
Control Area Forecasts
We have changed the name of what was once “Control Area Load Forecasts” to “Control Area Forecast” and moved this as a separate sub-menu under Forecasts. We have also added three new items to the report:
- Hydro – the utility level hourly hydro energy forecast
- Net Load – Load minus Hydro
- Change in Net Load – Net Load Today minus Net Load for future
Change in net load acts as a proxy for a utility’s hourly imbalance. If you assume thermal generation and long-term contracts are constant and unchanging then the only difference between a utility’s position will be in load and hydro (and wind and solar, soon to be added). By comparing today’s forecast to the future forecast (Change in Net Load) one can approximate the net imbalance which will need to be covered in either the day ahead or real-time markets.
Keep in mind this calculation is relative to today – loads are up in the forecast versus today; hydro energy is up because the RFC has jacked all stations, probably in light of the rain.
Later this week we will add in the Daily and Monthly imbalance reports which will have increasing value during the coming water year as they will identify the affect of the water year on a company’s position. We are also looking into adding each utility’s Slice component to their L&R report.
Added WECC to the Dispatch Forecasts:
Each of the three dispatch reports now has a 7th hub – “WECC” that can be viewed.
WECC is created by aggregating three unique ways, depending upon the item:
- SUM – items expressed in MW or special items like gas burn or emissions
- Max – all transmission flows which reflects the sending hub’s line loading
- Load Weighted Average – power price, heat rate, wind speed, and degree days