Mike’s Take – Sep 11 (911 …hard to believe its been 14 years) – Updated

Good Morning,

A couple things jump out today beginning with the collapse in temperatures in the south:  000_BurbankTemp




The north, we already know, cools down considerably and collects another precip event:



It’s not the trace (.1-.2 inches) of rain that is relevant, it’s the confirmation that the long-standing high pressure blocking system has finally broken down…seasonal storms can and should be expected.

While we are on the Mid-C it is worth noting the RFC 10 Day forecast has materially changed:



This is Thursday’s, we will be watching for confirmation in today’s (9-10 am pst);  Today’s is out and on the site:


Not only did the RFC confirm yesterday’s forecast – they INCREASED the flows.  We were leaning bearish for BOM, if we leaned any harder we’d be lying horizontal in the muddy waters of RFC bearishness.

note the material change in energy not only versus previous forecasts but, more importantly, the departure from the STP from just three days earlier.  The Mid-C is getting longer while the south finds itself longer and maybe, finally, Powerex will start soaking up these surplus MWH, but we doubt it as they continue to sell as if their run of river plants will never run out of river:



On the modeling note we have added a new piece of data, Puget Area Loads, to our historical actuals.  These types of changes (additions) are the norm and we will continue to enhance our library of data:


Looking ahead we will be enhancing our Control Area reports by adding hydro and renewables to the load forecast.  I think this will be a valuable report, especially when you view the data from a “Delta” perspective as it will show a reasonably accurate forecast of that utility’s net  position.   We’ll be shooting to roll out this enhancement next week.

Enjoy your weekend,