Good morning,
California is taking a sharp turn toward cooler temps over the next two weeks as a below-normal forecast has moved into nearly the entirety of the state, save the SE corner. Mid-C will inch closer to the mean, but stay below normal, while the Southwest continues on its warm path.
Mid-C can expect above-average precip over the next seven days while the Great Basin and Rockies remain especially dry.
After heavy congestion on the 4th, SP-PV spreads were much tighter as each eclipsed the $70 mark on the 5th. SP-NP remain neck-and-neck as well.
August crude finished more than $1.25 below July while August natural gas was up $0.22.
SoCal Citygate prices fell $0.30 for October, and while not as dramatic, the other hubs followed suit. January didn’t have as much of a sharp drop but has mostly leveled out over the past week.
AECO increased $0.13 day-on-day to push north of a dollar and more than triple the price we saw just three days ago. Citygate has settled in the low-$4 range for each of the past three days.
AECO’s price continues to fluctuate, and today’s price looks like it’s reached a high point once again.
SoCal gas storage dropped from 653 MMCF, the second-highest daily storage in the past year to a withdrawal of 71 MMCF over the span of five days. Northern California and Jackson Prairie also saw movement from storage to withdrawals during the same span of time.
Seattle is forecasted to top out at 79 today, seven degrees above normal, but perhaps the last above-normal day in the next couple weeks as the 10th tops out at just 70. Portland will hit 80 today but doesn’t show another day that warm in the next fourteen.
Loads increased for the third-consecutive day as temps slowly creeped back above normal across the region. Week-on-week demand was down close to 300 MW.
Demand decreased in NP-15 with peak loads more than 600 MW short of the day before, though loads remained up week-on-week. Despite peak demand dropping day-on-day, light load hours were up.
San Jose is projecting a daily high three degrees below normal today. Highs are forecasting within a couple degrees for the next week but could see temps increase 5+ degrees above normal by the 14th. Sacramento has slightly more of a deviation from average as tomorrow projects a high of 95, five above normal.
SP demand increased 400 MW day-on-day and but also fell short week-on-week by close to 1,600 MW in peak loads. Off-peak demand was up 400 MW day-on-day.
Burbank shows a high of 85 today, four degrees shy of normal, but that won’t be the trend as we move into the weekend. The 8th is projecting a high of 95, ten degrees above normal, while the 9th checks in at 92.
Light load demand was off close to 600 MW day-on-day while heavy loads fell 1,100 MW short of Tuesday. Yesterday also marked a significant drop from last week — 1,900 MW at peak load.
Phoenix is set to reach a high of 108 on the 8th, eight degrees above normal and three degrees warmer than Friday. Highs aren’t projecting below 103 for the next 12 days. Vegas may be even warmer as the 8th is forecasting a high of 106, one degree warmer than the previous 10-year high for that day.
All nukes remain at 100% this week.
SP gas noms jumped 190,000 MCF since the 3rd of September and are approaching the third-highest total since last October. NP had a sharp increase of its own, and though it fell short of setting annual highs, it still amounted to a 415,000 MCF increase over four days.
SP-15 solar fell to just 6,300 MW on Tuesday, the lowest daily high in over three weeks. Mid-C wind topped out just above 500 MW to start off the week. This is a far cry from the 2,000+ MW peaks we saw at the end of last week.
ISO gas outages tacked on 300 MW yesterday but are still well below the daily totals we saw at the end of August (3,788 WM on the 28th).
Hydro
Grand Coulee has held steady at 1,279 for the past week. Hungry Horse and Dworshak are steadily dropping with 1′ and 4′ shed since the 31st respectively. Libby seems to have found its sweet spot at 2,443 as it’s settled in that range for the past five days.
Spill came to a halt across the entirety of the Northwest.
Transmission
A significant change to report for COI as every hour from 9/10 10:00 AM to 9/17 10:00 AM is showing a TTC at 3,900 MW. Thereafter TTC drops to 2,865 through the 20th.
No shifts in NOB TTC to report this week.
Have a wonderful day,
William