Thursday Update

Good Afternoon,

Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.


SP15 Loads

SP-15 loads jumped up 1,415 MW yesterday, bringing the daily average to 18,346 MW, the highest in a week.  Yesterday still fell 100 MW short of last week’s peak demand, and 1,850 MW shy in year-on-year results.

Mid-C Loads

Mid-C year-on-year demand was virtually identical at 24,431 MW yesterday afternoon.  Yesterday also marked an increase of 1,358 MW week-on-week, and the third consecutive day of demand growth.  The daily average finished 800 MW higher than the two-week average.

Mid-C Demand Daily

Mid-C daily max demand seems to have begun another trend compared to last year as this summer has been consistently higher than last’s, especially in July.

NP-15 Loads

The year-on-year difference in demand in NP widened to 1,230 MW yesterday, essentially a continuation of that trend beginning last week.  Loads are up 800 MW week-on-week however, and the daily average was at its highest point since the 17th of July.


Current Weather Summary

NP-15 continues to lead the way in terms of aggregated temps, while Phoenix and Denver mark the only stations with below-normal average temps over the next 10 days (albeit just a few tenths of a degree for each).

Phoenix Weather

90-degree temps in Phoenix will return for one glorious day (the 29th), as the forecast took a sharp drop from yesterday, decreasing three degrees.  In fact, the rest of the month saw its forecast decreased, though that still only amounted to a single day in the 90s.  it’s a way out, but there forecast is holding on to its cool-down period in mid-August.

Phoenix Actuals

If the 98-degree day on the 29th holds true, it would mark the second-lowest high since early June.

San Jose Weather

Much like Phoenix, the next three days are forecasted cooler in San Jose than they were yesterday, though the area should remain well above normal until the second week of August.  The forecast peaks at 90 degrees on the 4th, but doesn’t look like it will touch that point again, at least not through August 17th.

Seattle Weather

Mid-C can pick up some steam moving into August, particularly in Seattle where there are now three consecutive 85-degree days forecasted to start the month.  This is equivalent to 8 degrees above normal, and a five degree jump over yesterday’s forecast.

Portland Weather

Portland will make a move into the 90’s during the same warm up, and will peak at 92 on the 3rd.  This would set a new 10-year high for that day and push temps to 12 degrees above normal.  The forecast then quickly falls back to normal through mid-August.

Spokane Weather

We’ll round out Mid-C with a look at Spokane and it’s no surprise it too will be hot, though in a sharp change from yesterday, Spokane lost its forecasted triple digit day on the 1st, and now projects just 96 degrees.  Also, worth noting the warm up in the second week of August was completely nullified by today’s forecast, dropping 10 degrees from on the 9th.

Denver Weather

A cool Denver forecast got even cooler today as the area should be more than 8 degrees below normal for four consecutive days beginning on the 29th.  From there, the forecast calls for a return toward normal, but there isn’t a significant warm-up any time in the near future.

Water Supply

NW River Forecast

Very small differences from yesterday throughout the 10-day forecast — still seeing significant drops beginning on the 30th.  STP shows the largest difference in MW beginning on the 31st with a 400 MW gap between it and the 10-Day.

ACE 14-Day Flows

Grand Coulee elevation took a sharp drop yesterday, decreasing 0.7′ day-on-day.  We also saw the daily average generation drop 4,000 cfs day-on-day.


MC to BC

Flows into Mid-C from BC slowed down by more than 400 MW in the daily average yesterday, particularly thanks to the spike at 11:00 AM that saw flows move to -466 compared to -2240 12 hours earlier.  Yesterday marked the second consecutive day of decreased southerly flow, and pushed the weekly average to -1,641 MW.

MC to NP

Flow into NP from MC also increased day-over-day with a jump of 450 MW, pushing the daily average to 3,087 MW, though still falling short of the weekly average (3,217 MW).  The wild swings in flow we saw last week have ceased (the 23rd, for example, swung from 2,101 MW to 4,387 MW over 14 hours).

Enjoy the rest of your week,