Good Afternoon,

This week’s NWRFC 120 Day Forecast has been released and is served up for your perusal:

Monthly

Very stable, week on week, and very large in total:

Energy Scorecard:

• April – Up 800aMW; hard to see the increase given the vast scales of WY17
• May – Up 260aMW
• June – Up 90 aMW
• July – Down 170 aMW; surprising that is three straight de-rates, yet snow pack has been building
• August – Down 280 aMW; again, not what we expected. The RFC has this year below normal, highly unlikely.

Year on Year

A big year, that’s all we can say about the above chart.

Daily

Note the slight cuts at the end of April as the draft ends and normal runoff has not commenced. We’d be more inclined to see bigger cuts over that period given the current cool weather is now projected into the first week of May.

 This chart blows up the August days and emphasizes our point that it is highly unlikely WY17 will be below normal. It is also odd that the forecast for August is declining while the basin’s snow builds.