Good Afternoon,
A dramatic change in today’s STP, read on…
Monthly
Energy Scorecard
- March – up 4600 aMW -> shyte again.
- April – up 3200 aMW
- May – down 500 aMW
- June – down 1000 aMW
- July – misleading, there was only a day or two in last week’s; I’d ignore.
The April bump reflects the new flood control draft and the spill over from the March increases. Those increases reflect a warming trend and the massive lower elevation snow. To put this in perspective, March is up 8500 aMW since five weeks ago and April is up a more modest 7000 aMW. Shyte!
Year on year
Mar-May are setting the highs over the last four years while June is about at par with 2014. Not enough days in July to say either way if the forecast is reasonable, need to look at the dailies.
Daily
Note the material haircuts on the latter half of June in the most recent forecast; can’t say we agree. Snow pack has built, we aren’t facing an early melt, if anything the melt has been deferred several weeks. One explanation is the draft to 1235; that wasn’t in last week’s, it’s in this week.
Day of Year
This plot compares the forecast from the same week for the last few years; kind of a reality check on the current forecast.