Good Afternoon,
Our friends in Portland have refreshed their 120-day forecast; let’s take a look.
Monthly Energy
Energy Scorecard (week on week):
- Feb – Up 2400 aMW
- Mar – Up 1600 aMW
- Apr – Up 500 aMW
- May – Up 400 aMW
- Jun – Up 2000 aMW
Wow, one would think that the Mid-C was hit with the biggest snowstorm of all time, was it?
Aside from the Freak Show on the Spokane, the important basins are, at best, normal. Hardly seems to warrant all of this new-found water, but before hasty conclusions are drawn best to look at all the plots.
Year on Year Energy
Aside from those monster June #s, all the other months appear to be more reasonable; perhaps past forecasts were just too low for the type of water year we are experiencing? Let’s compare snow, year on year:
This year is the bad boy on the block; one would have to time travel back to 2012, or 2011, to find similar Qs of snow on the ground in mid-Feb. Why isn’t GCL being drafted deeper than 1252′? In the past, this type of water year might even sport a 1220′ handle; that is 30 extra feet of non-fill for June … OUCH!
Daily Energy
All of the premium water is packed into Feb-March; April has realized haircuts from previous forecasts. We take exception to that, with cold weather on the horizon runoff is being deferred, the big volumes of low-level snow will be pushed out, plus whatever draft takes place should be in April, not March:
Target Coulee elevations at the end of March are 1283 (unless drum gate work is planned) and we don’t see BPA giving up head for the fun of it. We see the big draft in April where there is a greater possibility of big natural river flows than March, at least that is the way we see it.
We also think the May, relative to the June, seems a bit light; 2017 is lower than all of the previous four years though its snow is higher.
Disputes aside, this was a fun forecast.