Good Afternoon,
A client asked for more detail on how Ansergy solves for hydro energy for the WECC. The following reports addressed that request and are available in three aggregation levels:
Hourly
The model uses the NWRFC’s ten-day forecast where available,. Otherwise it uses a blend of our internal water supply outlook (precip-biased) and actual flows (for non-RFC stations).
This is a plot of Grand Coulee for the next seven days by hour. The plotted lines include the following:
- Climo – the ten year hourly average for this day of water year
- Actual – either the RFC 10 day or the most recent actual flows for same day of week
- STP – the RFC’s 120 day where applicable, otherwise NULL
- Runoff – the Ansergy internal water flow forecast driven by the current snow year extended out to Sep 30 of the current water year
- Spill – forecasted spill by hour
- CFSfc – our spill-adjusted flow forecast by hour for that station. Ansergy forecasts all of the WECC hydro (California, Colorado, Missouri, plus the Mid-C)
- Energy – the computed energy associated wit the the CFS Forecast
- PF – Plant Factor; energy divided by available capacity
The client wanted to see the data, I wanted to see the chart, so the data is one click away:
The above is a sample of the most recent forecast for a few hours; the actual data includes four historical forecasts plus the current (yesterday, two days back, last week, two weeks back). Several of the columns are hidden to make it easier to read. All WECC hydro stations can be downloaded from this report.
Daily
Lower Columbia – Daily (next 270 days of on peak)
I flagged a few important dates:
- End of STP – this demonstrates how Ansergy forecasts beyond the STP period
- End of Spill –
- Ansergy Blend – our CFS Forecast is net of spill
Similar data as the hourly except aggregated into on and off peak by day. You can download any (or all) stations plus four historical forecasts. All of the “Hydro Solution” data is updated 3-4 times a day.
Monthly
The monthly plots a rolling 27 months and incorporates the current water year plus the next “climo” year. In this example, we plotted the off-peak flows for the Lower Snake.
Available Stations
ref_hydrobasins
BasinName | slicemw | cmw | mw | plants |
---|---|---|---|---|
Clark Fork | 0 | 20532 | 928 | 6 |
Colorado | 0 | 4090 | 3715 | 4 |
Cowlitz Lewis | 70 | 2260 | 1130 | 9 |
Desert SW | 0 | 114 | 114 | 18 |
Clearwater | 401 | 10994 | 401 | 2 |
Grand Coulee | 6495 | 18440 | 6495 | 1 |
Flathead | 640 | 21172 | 640 | 1 |
Lower Columbia | 6080 | 6149 | 6149 | 5 |
Kootenai | 525 | 18965 | 525 | 1 |
Lower Snake | 4444 | 10593 | 4444 | 4 |
Middle Columbia | 0 | 11945 | 5796 | 6 |
MIssouri | 0 | 824 | 824 | 16 |
Middle Snake | 0 | 11834 | 1241 | 5 |
Oregon Central | 0 | 6631 | 482 | 13 |
Oregon West | 457 | 1238 | 1238 | 43 |
Pend Oreille | 43 | 19604 | 1164 | 5 |
Rockies | 0 | 966 | 966 | 85 |
Salmon | 0 | 10698 | 105 | 10 |
Spokane | 0 | 18619 | 179 | 7 |
Upper Snake | 202 | 12838 | 1004 | 52 |
Wash Central | 23 | 344 | 344 | 15 |
Wash West | 0 | 1470 | 1470 | 28 |
Lower Colorado | 0 | 375 | 375 | |
Shasta | 0 | 1155 | 1155 | |
Pit River | 0 | 766 | 766 | |
Yuba | 0 | 1220 | 1220 | |
Cosumnes | 0 | 1040 | 1040 | |
Cherry Ck | 0 | 1452 | 1452 | |
Tuolumne | 0 | 1068 | 1068 | |
San Joaquin | 0 | 1632 | 1632 | |
Merced | 0 | 375 | 375 |
Let us know if you’d like a private showing of the new reports.
Team Ansergy