Product Update – Ansergy Hydro Solution

Good Afternoon,

A client asked for more detail on how Ansergy solves for hydro energy for the WECC. The following reports addressed that request and are available in three aggregation levels:


Hourly

The model uses the NWRFC’s ten-day forecast where available,. Otherwise it uses a blend of our internal water supply outlook (precip-biased) and actual flows (for non-RFC stations).

Hourly – Grand Coulee

This is a plot of Grand Coulee for the next seven days by hour. The plotted lines include the following:

  1. Climo – the ten year hourly average for this day of water year
  2. Actual – either the RFC 10 day or the most recent actual flows for same day of week
  3. STP – the RFC’s 120 day where applicable, otherwise NULL
  4. Runoff – the Ansergy internal water flow forecast driven by the current snow year extended out to Sep 30 of the current water year
  5. Spill – forecasted spill by hour
  6. CFSfc – our spill-adjusted flow forecast by hour for that station. Ansergy forecasts all of the WECC hydro (California, Colorado, Missouri, plus the Mid-C)
  7. Energy – the computed energy associated wit the the CFS Forecast
  8. PF – Plant Factor; energy divided by available capacity

The client wanted to see the data, I wanted to see the chart, so the data is one click away:

Hourly Grand Coulee Data

The above is a sample of the most recent forecast for a few hours; the actual data includes four historical forecasts plus the current (yesterday, two days back, last week, two weeks back). Several of the columns are hidden to make it easier to read. All WECC hydro stations can be downloaded from this report.


Daily

Lower Columbia – Daily (next 270 days of on peak)

I flagged a few important dates:

  1. End of STP – this demonstrates how Ansergy forecasts beyond the STP period
  2. End of Spill –
  3. Ansergy Blend – our CFS Forecast is net of spill

Data

Similar data as the hourly except aggregated into on and off peak by day. You can download any (or all) stations plus four historical forecasts. All of the “Hydro Solution” data is updated 3-4 times a day.


Monthly

Lower Snake Off Peak 

The monthly plots a rolling 27 months and incorporates the current water year plus the next “climo” year. In this example, we plotted the off-peak flows for the Lower Snake.

Data 


Available Stations

ref_hydrobasins

ref_hydrobasins
BasinName slicemw cmw mw plants
Clark Fork 0 20532 928 6
Colorado 0 4090 3715 4
Cowlitz Lewis 70 2260 1130 9
Desert SW 0 114 114 18
Clearwater 401 10994 401 2
Grand Coulee 6495 18440 6495 1
Flathead 640 21172 640 1
Lower Columbia 6080 6149 6149 5
Kootenai 525 18965 525 1
Lower Snake 4444 10593 4444 4
Middle Columbia 0 11945 5796 6
MIssouri 0 824 824 16
Middle Snake 0 11834 1241 5
Oregon Central 0 6631 482 13
Oregon West 457 1238 1238 43
Pend Oreille 43 19604 1164 5
Rockies 0 966 966 85
Salmon 0 10698 105 10
Spokane 0 18619 179 7
Upper Snake 202 12838 1004 52
Wash Central 23 344 344 15
Wash West 0 1470 1470 28
Lower Colorado 0 375 375  
Shasta 0 1155 1155  
Pit River 0 766 766  
Yuba 0 1220 1220  
Cosumnes 0 1040 1040  
Cherry Ck 0 1452 1452  
Tuolumne 0 1068 1068  
San Joaquin 0 1632 1632  
Merced 0 375 375  

 

Let us know if you’d like a private showing of the new reports.

Team Ansergy