Good Afternoon,
Today’s STP update poses no big surprises, at least from a monthly energy perspective:
Energy Scorecard
- Oct – Down 200 aMW
- Nov – Down 100 aMW
- Dec – Down 17 aMW
- Jan – Up 200 aMW
Good, a stable forecast.
Daily Energy
Stable it is, this week’s is almost identical to last week, both contain the same potential errors and probable restatements:
- Too much energy? Oct 23 to Nov 20
- that period averages about 800 aMW greater than the five year average; not sure if we agree given how little anyone knows about November on Oct 3.
- Note enough energy? Dec 7 to Jan 23
- The last 50 days of the forecast is well below normal and they, and we, know even less about that period than we do Nov.
We like that the forecast is stable but question the veracity of the underlying numbers relative to normal.