Good Morning,
Some call these last few weeks of August the “Dog Days of Summer”; probably because everyone is so burned out of getting burned by the scorching heat. Well, those dog days are waning in the Northwest, last night was the first evening in a couple of months where I put on a coat to walk the dog. Seattle has grown cooler; some might call it chilly, but not cold enough to turn on the heater, but not hot enough to fire up the AC, either:
Portland avoids the Seattle chill, but note the slope of the Climo line (Red) at all five cities – downward. Winter is Coming!
Contrast Burbank’s climo line with the Northwest – the LA Basin remains sideways as there are many more hot days in store for Hollywood, but none in this forecast. Mostly below average in the front and just average in the back. Sacto has more volatility, and posts a few days over normal, but only after it works through some temperate temperatures. San Jose is just plain bearish for the seven days.
The southwest clings to its summer, Vegas is a bit warmer than Phoenix, both are still deep in the air conditioning season. Dog Days are a dull period of trading; there is very little hydro news and temperatures are on a slow death march to winter.
Realized northwest temps (yesterday) were in the low 70s, the ISO in the mid-80s, and the southwest still warm as both LV and PHX bounce around 100.
Loads reflect that reality, MidC is off the hardest, the other two are sideways, maybe even up to a touch.
Generation
MidC noms remain very high, and Palo’s are just robust, though well off from earlier levels this summer. That hub has plenty of capacity to meet its expected demand. NP gas nominations are an abomination; about 50% of its gas capacity is idle. Outages aren’t helping, though the season is approaching, just not for another six weeks:
Grim, huh?
Two irrelevant units trip, a slew return – a recipe for flat prices.
MidC HL is off $13, week on week, while PV is off $14; but the ISO is off yet half of those two outside hubs. We’re a bit surprised the MidC came off as hard as it did, given where the Noms are, and hydro is not exactly flush (see below).
About the only good ISO news is the downward sloping hydro line; from a week on week perspective it looks interesting. How does it look year on year?
Not so good, the state may be losing hydro energy but remains mired in a big water year.
Hydro
We’ll lead with Coulee …
As expected, BPA pulled Lk Roosevelt down a few feet, as a consequence the off peak water rallied hard over the weekend which explains the drop in cash. BPA has 14 days to pull 2-5 feet, and with no load events in sight, the feds newest worry is how to support power prices.
The northwest rivers will support those efforts, most are below normal but don’t expect any dramatic changes, the entire system is completely regulated until the big rains come: WYSIWYG.
BC Hydro still sits upon a solid water year and will be the black cloud ready to rain upon any irrational exuberance. Likewise, any really weak moments and they’ll pounce and buy.
We already looked at California hydro energy, but the above set of charts just confirms what those energy reports revealed. Most rivers are above normal; some are setting records. A few, however, are backing down so perhaps we’ll see some big drops over the next couple of weeks.
Transmission Flows
As the northwest weakens the lines to California rally. Both the AC and DC hit TTC limits several times over the weekend. Powerex made a net buy (one hour), another confirmation of weakness in the Northwest. Note yesterday’s derates on Path 15 and the low flows from Vegas.
Conclusions
To be posted later today.