Good Morning,
The Northwest reservoirs began their refill over the weekend:
Coulee added a foot and has just 56′ to go, we don’t see refilling this year as an issue given the substantial snow year. Where it might get interesting is the pace of refill; how much will take place in May versus June? Temperatures will probably have more to do with answering that question than anything else, and on to temperatures, we travel:
Demand
Demand plummetted from the lofty heights of Thursday, and for most Balancing Authorities their loads were lower over this weekend than last. Those negative anomalies are going to grow worse:
Phoenix will be about 30 degrees cooler tomorrow than last Thursday, but then rallies back to normal by the end of the week. To put this temperature reversal in perspective, look at actual temperatures over the weekend:
Palm Springs posted 60s, but look at the Billings | Phoenix temperature spread … Billings Over! You won’t see that every day, nor will you probably ever see it again in the month of May.
Heating loads threaten to return to California; Burbank’s highs tomorrow will be 68, its lows in the mid-50s. Sacramento is looking at a string of below average days later this week which will bode poorly for the SP|NP load spread.
The Northwest is warm for the next couple of days then chills out which will arrest the melt, or at least slow it down, deferring more water for June. That melt is starting to take off …
Hydro
Northwest rivers are soaring, check out the Middle Columbia (eastern Cascades) side flows. In just two days they nearly tripled growing from about 15,000 CFS to 43,000 CFS. Other rivers saw similar rallies:
Even the Spokane rallied, and we thought it was done, just shows how warm it was over the last few days. Look at the Clark Fork, now pushing 60kcfs through Noxon and Cabinet; both are spilling hard and now it’s putting pressure on the Pend Oreille. The Salmon is now dumping 60 kcfs into the Snake; it probably will reach 100 kcfs at peak. Right now, most of this extra water is being spilled:
Even Coulee poured nearly 40kcfs over its spill gates.
Mainstem projects haven’t moved much regarding generation; if anything the net energy is lower. Case in point are the outflows at Coulee:
Average daily flows are off at the project, though inflows are way up, some of which is explained by the rising reservoir, the rest by the surging spill. Also unusual shape yesterday, those cuts in outflow all happened during Sunday’s peak hours, the rallies were all in the off-peak. Kind of a reverse shaping strategy; typically the project would generate more energy during the day, less at night, but all bets are off this year.
BC Hydro saw most of its projects increase their discharge, most notably Arrow and Mica. Flows out of Brilliant are creeping up, they may soar once the Kootenai gets going.
Flows in California are more down than up reflecting that cooling temperature. Worry not, there is still a mountain of snow in the mountains, though the mountain is getting smaller:
SWE dropped faster than panties on prom night. There’s more to go, but it is finite and melt in May is bullish for July, maybe June. Watch those northwest temps, for now, they look normal to cool for the remainder of BOM.
Before leaving hydro it’s worth noting the Northwest returns to a wetter outlook. Kalispell, MT is poised to receive over an inch of the wet stuff, some of this will come down as snow north of 6000 feet. Winter ain’t over folks, at least in Montana.
TransGen
ZP sent energy to SP over the weekend, a reversal from last week. BC quit selling and started buying which is interesting as its hydro generation appeared to pick up. Both the AC and DC remain functionally full and looks like there will be an increase in capacity for the remainder of the month:
The AC will return to 4640 MWs by the end of the month and we suspect all 4600 MWs will be flowing into NP as the runoff may be peaking around then.
ISO Outages -Returns
ISO Outages – New
A few units returned, and a few new ones went offline, net bullish for the ISO, more so for SP:
Conclusions
- May
- The weather cools, loads are falling, and the Northwest is starting its runoff and its refill. We’ll trade BOM like it’s summer and sell them today off of those falling loads
- MidC Short HL
- SP Short HL
- Palo Short HL
- The weather cools, loads are falling, and the Northwest is starting its runoff and its refill. We’ll trade BOM like it’s summer and sell them today off of those falling loads
- June
- What goes down will eventually go up, and we won’t be caught naked short going into summer, and we’ll cover all that BOM short with June length
- MidC Long HL
- SP Long HL
- Palo Long HL
- Bonus Trade – we’re buying the June and July MidC Off peaks; refill has started, at some point BPA can shape to its heart’s content, but we like owning cheap, and June LL is dirt cheap; may have to wear it for a first few weeks but towards the latter half it might be a home run:
- For that matter, July is cheap, too:
- What goes down will eventually go up, and we won’t be caught naked short going into summer, and we’ll cover all that BOM short with June length
