Good Afternoon,
The Corps of Engineers updated their Flood Control for April today and added deeper drafts to most projects.
These are big drafts reflecting the big snow year. Coulee is targeted at 1222.7, but the biggest draft will be a Dworshak which is set to pull an additional 66 feet over the next 19 days.
We doubt Coulee will be too much of an issue given the rapid draft of late:
The above chart just projects the last 12 days of drafting out to May 1, which is the date GCL would hit 1222.7. There is less water in the last 15′ than the first, so reaching targets by end of month should not be an issue.
However, all bets are off should the northwest warm up; whenever BPA has to draft its runoff life becomes problematic. Also note that Libby will pull 51.8′ all of which will feed into GCL’s reservoir. April length is not out of the woods by any stretch; if things get warm, prices will be low single digits. Should weather stay where it’s at, we think BPA skates through the draft and is in a very strong position to “manage” the market (e.g. put gas back on the margin).
Today’s post will be added to our feed later this week.