Good Afternoon,
The NWRFC has updated its 120-day flow forecast for selected Northwest rivers, Our interpolation of those forecasts follows.
Monthly
Energy Scorecard:
- March – Up 1400 aMW
- April – Up 1200 aMW
- May – Up 500 aMW
- June – Up 400 aMW
Can’t say we disagree with much about this forecast given the state of the state.
Year on Year
It’s going to be a big one, boys and girls; y’all better buckle up, it might get a bit bumpy before this runoff is all said and done. LOL.
Daily
We circled three periods:
- This should be the transition out of March draft and before April begins, but given that BPA has ended its draft on March 15, at least until we get a different Flood Control, it is doubtful that any water is held back over those days.
- The second cut reflects the end of the draft and before runoff starts and again, not sure you see that given that there isn’t much additional draft to do and Coulee is poised to become the largest run-of-river plant in the world for the next eight weeks. If there is a new draft, we don’t think its reflected in today’s STP.
- Note the plateau in June; a long and lonely stretch of system-wide hydraulic capacity; contrast that with a normal year (red) where the peak lasts for maybe two weeks.
Day of Year
Note how much more water is in the 2017 forecast versus the 2014 and is higher for all of June. If you’re looking for a good template year, 2014 would be the one I’d use.