Good Afternoon,
The NWRFC published its 120-day update this afternoon and is solid six on the interesting scale.
Energy Scorecard
- Dec – Down 19 aMW – rounding error
- Jan – Up 540 aMW – the first surprise, but given constant bumps in Dec not a total surprise
- Feb – Up 1300 aMW – the second surprise, seems ridiculous given the RFC’s has been walking down its Water Supply number
- Mar – Down 700 aMW – not really a surprise given how silly last week’s March was (over-stated); this just puts a more realistic spin on the month
- Apr – really not enough data to draw a comparison, but for the days given last week vs this week it is off 800 aMW
Before recklessly casting aspersions we should investigate the other reports, then we can more confidently denigrate to our hearts content.
Big water upfront, no surprise given the big precip anomalies, plus the recent cold weather. However, the forecast seems to separate beginning on Jan 1 and widely deviates once it reaches Feb and that is where we just don’t get where this new-found water is coming from. Also think the cuts at the end of Feb look bizarre; this far out and calling for 1400 aMW positive anomalies (on March 1) then but a few days later calling for a 1000 megawatt negative anomaly. Those kinds of dramatic changes are typically driven by regulation, like flood control, but we are a month away from having any kind of clue as to what the drafts will be.
Look at the huge delta between 2014 and this year in Dec; this plot compares the same week for each of the years. We think this confirms that Dec and Jan are reasonable, maybe even Feb given that it is less than 2014, but March seems a shade rich, as does the early part of April.
From a historical perspective, the forecast does not seem unreasonable, except for the month of March which seems to imply very large drafts to drive such big flows. Strange that 2014, a much bigger water year (at least as of today) is so much lower than 2016.