Good Afternoon,
The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast today at 2:24 pm, PDT and can be construed as bearish.
Balance of March was the only month to realize a drop, and that by a scant 500 aMW. June enjoyed the biggest rally, up 2,000 aMW, but we think June may be overstated for a couple of reasons. First, not a single US snow basin above Coulee is above normal; Second, BPA will be forced to pass inflows through the middle of May, or at least not be able to raise the reservoir above 1255′, due to the maintenance underway on the drum gates. That will have the effect of compressing the refill into a shorter period and, at least in our view, reduce outflows.
Much of that incremental June energy is spread across the latter half of the month. If the RFC is right it bodes poorly for June MidC length.
Mike