Good Morning,
Mostly choppy news but there are a few interesting nuggets out there, starting with the weather forecast:
Hub-Level Composite Weather Forecasts
MidC is dryer, off about a 1/4″ over the next 10 days, while NP is “off” the charts and is set to set a new 10 year high over that same period (3.22″). Several hubs are seeing a warming trend let by Palo which is projected to be 5 degrees warmer than normal but still a far cry from “hot”. The MidC and Rockies are all projected to be cooler, but not cold. The precip at the MidC is worth looking at on a daily basis:
Mid-C Composite Precip Forecast
The next few days will be wet, wetter than normal, followed by dry; dry as in nothing. Point being that this epic/massive/market-changing storm we’ve been realizing really didn’t do anything except melt a lot of snow. It was just too warm to high up; don’t believe me?
The storm is about over and what did we realize in terms of snow, week on week? Spokane – down; Clark Fork – down; Clearwater – down; Kootenai – up 1%; Pend Oreille – down; Flathead – down; Upper Snake – down; Middle Snake – down; Salmon – down. LOL! Just wait until the end of next week, following 5 days of no precip.
I won’t bore you with a NWRFC water supply post; I don’t believe it, the Corps doesn’t believe,it and nor should you. So guess where all that moisture went … easy to guess, it is flowing downstream on its way to the Pacific Ocean.
Clark Fork is regulated but the Spokane, Sideflows, and Pend Oreille aren’t so much and all three set 5 year highs. Note On Sideflows: This is an Ansergy Index of rivers below Coulee and above Priest Rapids that can be very telling and important. All of this water comes in unregulated, BPA has no control over it, and most of it flows through about 15,000 MW of capacity. These flows are bearish on cash but must be perceived bullish for some strip of days in Q2. The California rivers are really raging:
Aside from the regulated Sacramento (Shasta) all are at or near 5 year highs. Everything that doesn’t have a massive reservoir is now running at hydraulic capacity within the Sunshine State which leaves only one direction left for hydro energy ….. down.
Renewables are rallying, today will be a massive wind day for the Mid-C:
Solar has made a nice rally though the next spate of storms should dim that solar outlook but, as mentioned above, expect northwest wind to approach a seasonal high today.
WECC demand over the last week has been flat the last week, though cooler northwest and warmer southwest should be good for a 2-3000 mw pop:
Cash markets have rallied a bit , so have the LMPs:
Given big water everywhere one would expect prices to be trending down, but they aren’t; they are trending up. That trend isn’t over, either. The northwest is going to slam on the hydro brakes next week, once Coulee hits 1254′ or so, and that is only 2′ away. With dryer weather forecasted everywhere, and the calendar slip sliding its way towards summer, demand will begin rallying. The forwards crept up yesterday, in spite of the bears wanting them to creep down, which further adds to their angst. If a few bears decide to change direction, and they should, that slow creep up will become a veritable stampede. Stay tuned!
Mike