Good Morning,
Ansergy implemented changes to its hydro energy forecast last night to reflect the effects of the proposed drum gate maintenance on Grand Coulee dam. The project requires Coulee to maintain a maximum forebay of 1255′ from March 15 to May 15 which will affect outflows from the project through the end of June.
Mid-C Hydro Energy Forecast – Daily
The black line reflects the forecast for this morning, the other lines from yesterday and a week ago. Energy increases from today through March 15 as the project’s reservoir is pulled down to 1255′ (currently at 1278). The next shift, a cut in energy, from April 10 to April 30 is due to the shifting of the draft to Feb-Mar. The third change, from May 1 to May 15, is an increase in hydro energy arising from the project being forced to pass inflows in order to maintain the 1255′ elevation. Typically Coulee would begin its refill of Lake Roosevelt in the first week of May but, because of the drum gate project, those inflows will now be passed through. The final change, from May 15 to June 30, is a decrease in hydro energy caused by a compression of the refill season from 60 days to 45.
On Peak – Price Impact of Drum Gate Maintenance
The model is now projecting the first week of May and the first week of June as the season lows and with flat prices from now to the 4th week of June. The early June cut in energy has pulled the dailies out of single digits and are now being dispatched off of Bridger/Colstrip.
Similar to on peak except less volatile until first week of June, then a dramatic (bullish) impact.
We are still not 100% certain the drum gate work is going to happen and won’t be until we receive an independent confirmation which probably will come via the TMT minutes. That said, the NWRFC has pretty much confirmed everything in Tuesday’s STP. We no longer believe the one day delay in releasing the STP (from Monday to Tuesday) was a result of the NWRFC honoring the Boy Scouts. No, they needed the extra day to factor in perhaps the single biggest change in hydro regulation in years.
Mike