Good Afternoon,
Speaking of kicking a dog while its down, those feds did it again … the STP just came out this afternoon and its chock full of fun and surprises.
Feb (BOM) was jacked a jaw-dropping whopping 5000 MWs which is around a 40% correction over last week’s numbers. Perhaps this warm weather was factored in and the expectation is for the season’s first freshet? Equally interesting is the correction to March versus April: 2000 MW increase versus a 2000 MW decrease, respectively. One explanation may be a new regulation directive which cuts the Coulee draft in April? The June forecast is massive and too big in my opinion but its there and a whole lot of slice customers just got a whole lot longer this afternoon.
This isn’t the typical “jack the front and leave the rest unchanged” change – they jacked the whole strip from Feb to March. Note the cuts in April are coming during the GCL draft period, that has to be a regulation-driven change. We’ll see tomorrow when the Feb flood control comes out.
Most of 2016 is in line with averages which is in line with the current water year.
A new episode of the RFC Twilight Zone is the latest Apr-Sep Water Supply Forecasts are now 4% higher than this morning.
Water Supply Forecast – Apr-Sep
I’d love to give you a logical explanation for this erratic forecasting behavior but there isn’t one. What it does suggest is that tomorrow’s flood control report may bring deeper drafts – but that doesn’t explain a 2000 MW cut in April.
Oh well, time to mow my lawn … its February in Seattle and my grass is growing like its May (dog kicked again).
Cheers,
Mike