Good Afternoon,
The NWRFC released its weekly outlook for northwest river flows this afternoon (1:37 pm pst). As expected the front received a boost while the back was relatively ignored,
Daily Energy Associated with STP:
Jan 30 is about 3,000 aMW higher than last week’s forecast for the same day. In fact all of BOM is above the average for those dates, then the forecast reverts back to below normal until April, which is when the GCL flood control commences.
BOM up about 2,000, Feb up 500 aMW, March unchanged, April up slightly and May backed down slightly. If there is anything suspect in this forecast it is the Feb-Mar, but not by too much, as show in the year-on-year:
Most telling is the forecast in May is above all previous years (2012-15) – this in an El Nino Year! If I was to guess I’d say that the May is going to be backed down some, probably end up closer to the 2014 water year. Feb and March they will be revised upwards, Feb for certain, to levels closer to the average. The most recent precip forecast supports this prediction:
Weather – Mid-C Composite Precipitation:
That is a big body of water heading towards the Mid-C and arrives in front of the RFC’s “Feb Final”, the forecast which will be used to set flood control levels.
Mike