Good Afternoon,
Normally I’d wait until tomorrow morning to publish the STP update (updated at 2:46 pm PST on the RFC site; updated on Ansergy’s site 5 minutes later) but these numbers in the current forecast are so staggering, at least in terms of delta from last week, that I could not resist. Let’s start with the daily shape:
It’s like they just pulled out the 5 year average and used it instead of their usual method – the Ouija Board. The sharp rally beginning around April 9 corresponds to the GCL Flood Control draft which suggests this report has been heavily biased by regulation (versus natural river flows). To put the change in perspective let’s examine the monthly plots:
You see what I mean by reverting to the 5 year average (gray bar)? But forget all of that and focus on the change in aMW: 2700 in April and 5000 in May! Yes, you read that right, 5,000 MW change in a weekly forecast. You go to bed and there is one nuke at Mid-C; you wake up and now there are six. Well, six for one month, but don’t count on June cuts from the May number because it will be bigger than May.
To put this year in perspective let’s look at the year on year:
Strange looking chart – 2016 is materially lower in Jan-Mar, then about the same in Apr-May. I don’t buy it, I think the RFC is short 2-3000 MW of Feb Mar water and will choke it up as those days approach their 10 day forecast. On final comment, look at 2015 May. Keep in mind, that forecast was released around Jan 20, 2015 and the ultimate value for that strip was massively lower – so was June 2015. Not saying we’ll see that strange set of two months this year, just pointing it out.
So what’s it all mean? It means a whole lot of Northwest Slice customers just got a whole lot longer for April and May and will be sniffing out bids tomorrow morning. If it was me I’d not show one, instead I’d act like a Slice Customer and show a few offers in the Q2 …. assuming that kind of trading strategy is still legal …it was in my day.
Cheers,
Mike