Good Afternoon,
As expected, the NWRFC has jacked the curve, but there are now 1k handles, just triple digits littering the next 120 days.
Monthly Energy
Energy Scorecard
- Nov – Up 600 aMW
- Dec – Up 520 aMW
- Jan – Up 510 aMW
- Feb – Up 750 aMW (whoa!)
- Mar – Up 440 aMW
On the surface, raising the energy outlook in the face of an above normal storm seems reasonable, but as we peel back the outer rings of the onion it begins to get smelly.
The Nov we pretty much agree with, after all, the Northwest has set a new record for Oct-Nov precip and the reservoirs are fuller than they have been in five years. But off-setting those full reservoirs are barren snow fields, the hub is at best 50% of normal, but closer to 30% of normal. That is not what the feds see, they have the Nov-Jan strip setting new highs and Feb-Mar at normal. We buy those two months, but think the Dec-Jan seems a bit over done.
Daily Energy
Not a lot to say regarding the daily chart, aside from the fact that every day between now and Jan 31 is about 1500 aMW higher than the five-year average STP for those days. It is a bold forecast, clearly driven by record precip, and clearly ignoring the dearth of snow. Bear in mind several of those years (last 5) had significant drafts in February; if snow pack doesn’t build there won’t be drafts, or just minor drafts, yet WY17 is higher than all years.
Daily Year on Year
This chart compares the same week forecast by year. See what I mean, for the next 70 days WY17 is basically off the charts, setting new five-year highs. We just don’t see it, the wet is mostly in the Pacific, some is in the reservoirs but that should be bearish for Feb-Mar when BPA must puke it back out via the draft. Should the federales be right than short Dec and Jan … go ahead, we are buying. We have seen plenty of 2 kmw reversals in the past and won’t be a bit surprised to see the latter half of Dec and all of Jan come under attack and be pounded back down to reality by the whipsawers.
Monthly Year on Year
In this view we compute the average by month for every forecast released for that water year, and compare to the current week forecast. Doesnt’ say much different, Nov-Jan are off the charts, Feb and Mar are about normal.