Good morning,
This week looks much cooler than next week, especially along the Pacific coast. Look for a moderate warm up to spread from the Northwest to the Southwest, with a cooldown lingering east of the Rockies.
Precipitation is on the way for nearly the entirety of the Western US, at least for this week. Washington and Oregon may be partially spared their share of rain in the second-half of the forecast.
The SP-PV day ahead spreads for the 25th hit a peak of $10, up from $9 on the 24th. SP-NP DA spread had just a dollar of congestion on the 25th while both sat at $60 on the 24th.
Crude was off $0.33 yesterday but dipped as low as $0.44 off at mid-day. Gas increased a penny after rising to $3.05.
January SoCal Citygate jumped $0.51 yesterday, enough for its highest price in more than a month. SoCal Border showed a more modest $0.24 day-on-day increase in January.
AECO saw a $0.20 increase for the second-consecutive day after settling at $1.77, the highest price since June 1st. SoCal Citygate managed a $0.14 day-on-day increase but remains south of the $4+ we saw late last week.
Most days over the next week are showing up around three degrees below normal in Seattle, with all highs failing to top out above 70. Same holds true for daily lows as well, though temps are keeping their head above the 50-degree mark for the time being.
Portland is another story, however, as temps should break above 80 each of the next three days, even reaching 85 tomorrow.
Northwest loads were down less than 100 MW day-on-day but were up close to 300 MW week-on-week.
Demand was up more than 900 MW week-on-week yesterday, but down 600 MW day-on-day. Off-peak loads managed a 400 MW increase day-on-day, however,
San Jose should top out at 84 today, just a degree short of normal, though the overnight lows are projecting two degrees higher at 57. Next week is forecasting cooler as each day should see a high in the mid-70’s.
Sacramento, on the other hand, will get highs in the mid to upper 90s both today and tomorrow before also dropping into the mild mid-70’s by the weekend.
SP peak demand fell 480 MW day-on-day yesterday and was more than 1,700 MW short week-on-week. Light loads were down day-on-day, albeit less dramatic at a 100 MW drop.
Burbank climbs into the low 90’s today and tomorrow before falling as low as 77 by October 2nd. Look for highs above 110 in the desert as Palm Springs projects 111 today.
Phoenix is forecasting highs above 100 through the end of the month, but October will mark the beginning of the slow descent into winter as the remainder of the forecast is mired in 90-degree highs. Las Vegas has just one 100 degree day remaining on its forecast, and that will show up on Friday at 100 degrees even. 80’s will be in store for Phoenix for much of next week.
PV2 dropped below 100 for two consecutive days with 98% on Monday and 97% yesterday.
SP gas noms have increased more than 100,000 MCF over the past two day but are mostly unchanged week-on-week. Mid-C noms have seen a steady drop since the 20th, coming in more than 120,000 MCF lower.
SP-15 solar saw a strong 300 MW increase on Monday, marking its largest daily peak since the 18th with 6,438 MW. That still marks 300 MW short of what we had seen for most of last week, however.
Mid-C wind dropped from 2,000+ MW on Sunday and 1,400+ MW on Monday to just a trickle by yesterday.
ISO gas outages fell 150 MW yesterday and brought the total to just 984 MW, again ranking among the lowest gas totals for the ISO in months.
Hydro
Grand Coulee saw heavy increases over the past week with just over 2 feet added to elevation. Dworshak looks like it’s come to a halt and may be reversing course soon as just a foot of elevation was lost over the past four days.
John Day continues to show a 1,600 CFS spill for ten hours each day (from 0700-1900).
Transmission
The TTC cut we mentioned last week shows a gradual increase beginning on the first as 500 MW was added back to capacity. Look for additional increases on the 2nd and 5th as well.
Have a wonderful day,
William