Thursday Fundamentals

Good morning,


NOAA Forecast Images

Warmer than normal temps are enveloping everything West of the Rockies, especially as you move closer to the coasts or Southwest.  The Rockies moving East is another story as fall looks like it’s making an early appearance.

Precipitation Forecast

California and the Southwest aren’t expecting rain, so no anomaly is expected, but the Northwest is looking particularly dry over the next two weeks, especially in the Puget Sound.

LMP Spreads

The SP-PV day ahead spreads for the 19th hit a peak of $6, up from $4 the day prior.  SP-NP DA spread sat at $18 on the 19th, down from a notable $43 spread on the 18th.


Crude rose more than a dollar yesterday, enough to push north of the $70 barrier for the just second time since June.  Gas moved the opposite direction following a $0.03 drop to $2.87.

West Term Gas Prices

October SoCal Citygate increased $0.14 yesterday, reaching $3.18.  January is relatively unchanged in the same span of time.  All other hubs saw a small increase day-on-day for October as well.

Spot Gas

AECO fell $0.12 but stayed above $1.00 for the 8th consecutive day.  SoCal Border reached $2.69 after a $0.21 increase day-on-day, the largest of the listed hubs.

Gas Storage

SoCal storage fell below zero temporarily but managed to jump back into storage territory with 171 MMCF yesterday.  Jackson Prairie has stayed positive for each of the last seven days.

Mid-C Demand

Seattle’s highs aren’t reaching above normal today, but lows are projecting a five-degree increase over average at night.  There is potential for a return to mid-70’s late next week in Seattle and Spokane, while Portland gets a shot at 80 and 81.

Northwest loads increased 75 MW in the light load trough, but peak demand fell short day-on-day.

NP 15 Demand

Demand was up slightly in NP as late afternoon hours saw a modest 100 MW increase day-on-day.  Week-on-week figure remained down close to 350 MW for most hours.

San Jose gets treated to a high of 86 today, a five degree temp anomaly at its peak.  Highs should remain in the 80 through the weekend before dropping back into the 70’s at the beginning of the next work week.  Sacramento remains warm however, as max temps dip below 90 just a handful of times over the next two weeks.

SP-15 Demand

SP demand fell 450 MW day-on-day in SP yesterday and was more than 1,000 MW short week-on-week.  Light loads sat mostly unchanged with just 20 MW making up the difference day-on-day.

Look for high 80’s to low 90s through next week in Burbank as most days come a couple degrees above normal.  Despite the lofty daily highs, daily lows are showing two to three degrees below average.

PV Demand

Phoenix is projected below 100 degrees for both today and tomorrow but will rise back above normal to 103 for both Saturday and Sunday.  Triple digits say goodbye beginning on the 29th and don’t show a return through the current forecast.

Nuke Status

PV3 dropped below 100 as it checked in at 98% yesterday.  All other hubs remained at 100%.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms increased 160,000 MCF week-on-week as of Tuesday but followed that with a 140,000 MCF decrease yesterday.  Mid-C noms hit 676,000 MCF yesterday, its highest level since August 21st.


SP-15 solar dropped 200 MW week-on-week yesterday as generation topped out at 6,600 MW, 50 MW higher than the day before, however.  Mid-C wind was almost non-existent on Monday where mid-day wind topped out at less than 50 MW.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO gas outages reached a new month-long low following a 130 MW day-on-day decrease and settled at 838 MW in total.



PNW Reservoirs

Grand Coulee began filling last week and has now raised a total of 1.5′ since the 12th.  Hungry Horse, Libby, and Dworshak remain on a steady decrease in elevation.

River Spill

Bonneville is continuing its pattern of 2,200 CFS of spill between 7:00 and 20:00.




TTC drops to 3,840 MW from 7:00 to 18:00 on the 27th and shows a longer decrease beginning on the 1st of October at 2,300 MW.



Have a wonderful day,