STP Update

Good Morning

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Energy Scorecard

  • Aug- Up 900 aMW
  • Sep – Down 500 aMW
  • Oct – Up 250 aMW
  • Nov – Up 400 aMW

Miraculously, the NWRFC created about 300 aMW of water across four months. Amazing stuff, especially given that the reservoirs were drafted hard and it hasn’t rained in two months.

Water, despite the “rainmaker”, remains tight and well-below normal through the BOM. Beginning in October, the Feds grow bearish and oddly project positive¬†anomalies for the balance of their forecast. I wish I could point to some logical reason for this, but there isn’t one.

In this view, we compare the current STP (as measured in Energy – aMW) against the prior 20 years, same month, the same number of days. August leaps off the page, 2018 is setting up to be perhaps the tightest since 2001.