A warm Northwest as of today will slowly trend cooler over the next two weeks, while a hot Great Basin works its way back toward the mean. California looks consistently above normal for the time being.
It’s dry across the west this week while next week shows signs of large storms in the Southwest.
Some congestion showing up in the day ahead market for SP-PV as prices differed by up to $9.
AECO is up $0.30 week-on-week but is coming off a $0.40 decline over the weekend. A similar $0.40 drop was in store for CityGate compared to last week. Northwest Sumas joins the volatile group as prices dropped from $2.02 to $1.07 over the weekend and are now on their way back up at $1.70.
Crude is down a little more than 40 cents day-on-day while natural gas varied by as much as 7 cents before settling down 4 cents by yesterday afternoon.
SocalCity July stabilized at $3.56 after last week’s freefall from the low $4.00s.
Southern California gas storage remains positive at 226,312 MCF, though it has come close to dropping below zero in the past week and a half. Northern California shed 260,000 MCF over the past two days and sits at just over 310,000 MCF.
Portland is projecting high of 92 today which would check in at an impressive 21 degrees above normal. The lows stay above 60 as well, keeping the off-peak hours warm. Seattle should reach 85 today, a slightly cooler 18 degrees above normal.
Peak demand was up more than 2,000 MW week-on-week Monday, and more than 3,000 MW yesterday as the Northwest got its first large heatwave of the year.
Demand was up yesterday day-on-day as temps increased across the hub. Monday’s loads fell 300 MW short week-on-week.
San Jose shows 80’s for the rest of the week, eventually leading up to a high of 92 by the 23rd. There are two days of high-90’s projected for the end of the month as well. Meanwhile Sacramento shows a return of triple digits by the 22nd and a high of 104 on the 23rd (14 degrees above normal).
Demand increased more than 1,400 MW yesterday as temps make their climb in Southern California. Monday recorded loads 1,500 MW lower week-on-week.
Burbank is forecasting 90’s for the remainder of the workweek. The weekend should drop back into the 80’s, but next week will see highs nearing 90 as well.
Phoenix shows a high of 107 today, right on average, but should jump up to 110 for the following two days. Next week should bring temps closer to the 90’s though mostly teetering on the edge of triple digits.
Vegas shows a high of 113 for Thursday, and 112 for the 28th.
Demand soared yesterday as temps increased throughout the hub, especially in off peak hours as Phoenix never dropped below 78.
All plants remain at full generation.
SP-15 gas noms increased 70,000 MCF yesterday and are at their second-highest levels since March. Mid-C continues its rapid increase since the beginning of the month with another 60,000 MCF day-on-day increase, bringing the total to 601,000 MCF, the highest since March 7th.
Mid-C wind has all but disappeared, just in time for rising temps and increased demand. Hourly wind generation peaked at just 61 MW by yesterday afternoon, and just 548 MW the day before.
On the other hand, SP solar is generating at a good pace as yesterday topped out at 7,100 MW, the highest hour in over a week.
ISO gas outages increased nearly 900 MW day-on-day yesterday as SP alone tagged 520 in outages.
The Clark Fork reversed trend late Saturday evening and picked up its pace, adding nearly 9,000 CFS in three days. All other rivers remain mostly flat over the same span of time.
The Lower Snake is inching its way back toward average after adding roughly 12,000 CFS overnight.
Hungry Horse and Albeni Falls are holding steady at 3,560 and 2,060 respectively, while the other three reservoirs continue to fill at a steady pace.
This week-on-week look shows the damage on what’s remaining of this year’s snowpack.
The five largest snowpacks (at their peak) for Clark Fork are displayed. While this year topped out at the 3rd-highest, its melt came most abruptly, falling more than 2.5″ below the next-closest year as of today.
Note the line dropping to 0 for three days at the end of the month.
COI dropped an additional 100 MW from the 25th-28th and 300 MW from the 29th-2nd.
Have a wonderful day,