Good afternoon,
There is a pretty stark difference in the forecast for the Northwest and the Southwest, especially the Southern Rockies, as the former paces well above normal and the latter looks to cool. The second week of the forecast sees both areas reverting closer to the mean.
Drier than normal in the Northwest this week while that trend will slowly work its way further east. The Southwest should continue to get its monsoons.
Heavy congestion in NP-Captain Jack as prices differed from $93-$45 respectively in the day ahead market.
AECO sunk back to just $0.55 after a brief foray above a dollar. SoCal-Citygate has increased $0.97 since Friday though is still a few cents short of the same day last week.
Crude is mostly flat on the day at $66.20 after moving both above and below that line at various times. Gas came off nearly five cents after sinking in the early morning hours.
SoCal July bounced back six cents after a near freefall over the previous week.
PV gas demand reached 1,403 MMCF today, a 21 MMCF day-on-day increase and a 150 MMCF week-on-week. This marks the second-highest demand since mid-March.
Northern California gas storage fell from 743,000 MCF yesterday to just 138,000 MCF today. Enough to stay positive but one of the largest single day decreases since February.
Portland is projecting highs of 89 by mid-week next week, potentially 18 degrees above normal. Until then, temps will make a slow climb out of the low 70s. Spokane should get consecutive days of 90’s during the same dates, while Seattle gets mid-to-low 80s.
Peak demand was almost unchanged yesterday as just 1 MW differed between the day before. Off-peak demand increased 500 MW.
Yesterday’s demand fell well shy of Monday’s peak of 14,916 MW (highest peak since the 4th). Yesterday’s low loads were 900 MW higher, on the other hand.
Keep an eye on the 16th as San Jose projects a high of just 72, four degrees below normal. Next week looks like a return of 80s for San Jose, while Sacramento won’t drop below 87 over the next three weeks and should see high 90’s by next week.
Demand fell in SP as well with the daily average finishing a far cry from Monday’s 19,150 MW.
Burbank is projected to hit 90 today but fall back below normal through the 21st thereafter. The 16th could fall to 72, eight degrees below normal.
Phoenix shows a high of 109 for the 13th, eight degrees above normal. The 15th and 16th should mark a deep dive below normal as temps should top out at 90 on each day, 14 degrees below normal.
Off-peak demand increased 300 MW yesterday while Monday’s average daily demand reached 11,880 MW, a day-on-day increase of 400 MW.
Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Palm Springs all reached double digits in actual highs, while Portland hit 72 after a 14-degree increase.
Columbia finally made its return to 100% today. All plants now sit at full generation.
SP-15 gas noms increased 50,000 MCF yesterday and are now approaching their highest levels since March.
Wind has fallen off the map the past two days in SP, at least during on-peak hours as just 157 MW was recorded yesterday as solar hits its high. Mid-C wind topped out at 3,741 MW over the weekend, the highest peak of the past two weeks.
ISO gas outages have added 750 MW since last week’s low at 1,482 MW.
Hydro
Flows have slowed across the board, especially in Pend Oreille where the week-on-week difference has amounted to the flows halving. With Spokane at just over 6,000 CFS, the river is sitting at just over half its average.
All four sideflows continue to move at a less than average CFS though the Lower Columbia at least appears to have bottomed out.
Libby shows the largest year-on-year variance with 13 feet on top of what it had last year, and nine feet more than two years ago. Grand Coulee sits right in the middle of the last two years at 1,279′.
The small amount of snow still present in Montana and Idaho are enough to show up as heavy anomalies in the % of average map.
Grand Coulee snowpack levels fell to nearly 1.5″ from average as of yesterday.
Transmission
NOB TTC reductions had been extended from the 18th through 27th, but now look to end on the 22nd.
Note the reduction from 8 AM on the 13th through 1700 on the 14th.
Have a wonderful day,
William