Friday Update

Good afternoon,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

The heat anomaly index is looking warmer in the second-half of the two weeks, especially on the coast and Northwest in particular.  The Southwest will be warm regardless of date.

Precipitation Forecast

A dry spell is sweeping through the Northwest and eventually extending through the rest of the west (though parts of the Eastern Rockies may get extra precip).

LMP Spreads

Again no congestion within SP-PV as their prices stay nearly identical.

Spot Gas

AECO increased $0.62 since Wednesday, settling at $1.83 as of today.  Socal Citygate wasn’t a big mover, surprisingly, while Socal Border showed a three day increase of $0.18.

Futures

Crude crashed nearly $3.00 since early this morning as sits at $67.83 as of writing, the lowest price since the beginning of the month.  Gas is flat since the beginning of the day, though there was a three cent increase earlier in the day, but it has since settled where it began.

West Term Gas Prices

Socal City increased $0.10 day-on-day yesterday for October.

LDC Demand

PV gas demand jumped to 1,403 MMCF after an increase of 41 MMCF day-on-day.

Gas Storage

SCG added 341,851 today, the largest daily addition since September.  SCG hasn’t shown a withdrawal since May 3rd.

Mid-C Demand

High 70’s are in store for Portland over the weekend before things get relatively normal for most of next week.  June 3rd shows up with a high of 85, but it’s far enough out that you may not want to bank on it quite yet.

Demand crashed nearly 1,200 MW in the daily average yesterday as peak demand fell 400 MW and off-peak hours were down 800+ MW.

NP 15 Demand

Demand increased 180 MW day-on-day yesterday thanks to an increase in off-peak demand (additional 200 MW).  Demand finished 250 MW higher compared to the same day last week.

San Jose won’t top 70 until Sunday as both today and tomorrow sit comfortably in the 60’s.  This weekend marks the beginning of a hike toward upper-80’s as we approach the end of next week.

SP-15 Demand

SP demand added just 20 MW yesterday as late afternoon loads increased but were essentially wiped out by an equal drop in peak demand.

Monday and Tuesday mark a return of 80-degree days while this weekend should bring mid-70’s.  The following weekend should see 80’s well with everything in between falling toward the mid-70’s.

PV Demand

Phoenix should see a high of 98 today, but the weekend will bring highs closer to 92, showing a slight reprieve.  From there, it’s triple digits for the foreseeable future, though the 110 that we saw on the horizon has all but disappeared.

Average daily jumped an impressive 400 MW day-on-day after peak demand increased nearly 750 MW.

Nuke Status

Columbia Generating Station is coming back online with 65% reporting today.  PV2 is at 0% for the second-consecutive day.

Gas Plant Noms

SP gas noms fell 27,000 MCF day-on-day today marking the end of a pretty steep climb that began one week ago.

Renewables

Mid-C wind peaked at 2,696 MW yesterday, the highest hour of the week.  The wind didn’t stop there as all of yesterday produced hourly generation of at least 1,100 MW, the highest average day since the 17th.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO outages increased 800 MW yesterday but recovered that much and more today, falling to 3,415 MW, the lowest outage total in over a month.

Hydro

Above Coulee Flows

The Clark Fork stretched to 98,900 CFS today, the fastest flow of the year.  The Spokane continues to ramp down, having lost 4,000 CFS in the past week.

The Clark Fork is just 5,000 CFS off from the highest flow this decade (2011).

Side-Flows

Lower Snake flows has been setting new 10-year highs for a week straight, though flow has been slowly declining.

PNW Reservoirs

At 1,248 ft, Grand Coulee is two feet higher than it was on the same date last year, but still 14 feet below 2016.

Snow Anomaly

Snow cover is disappearing quickly as most of the Northwest has been above 70 for weeks now.  Concentrations around the Lower Snake and the Clark Fork explain their seemingly ever-increasing flows.

Clark Fork Snowpack

Clark Fork’s snowpack basin finally shallowed its slope over the past couple days and is now decreasing at a slower rate than the average line.

NWRFC 10-Day

The RFC knocked some more energy off its 10-Day forecast, particularly on the front end as tomorrow shows up 50 aMW lower day-on-day.  The STP continues to project higher throughout all ten days.

Transmission

BPA TTC

No changes to TTC reported since the last update.

Energy Oracle

For those of you unfamiliar with Energy Oracle, the following description had been included in the automated Oracle emails we have been running.  Note:  Oracle will now be included in our daily blogs instead.

In a thinly traded market, the opportunities are many, the time horizon to execute (either spec or hedge) is narrow. Ansergy scours 388 potential execution opportunities several times a day and ranks all of those against each other. We call that process “APT” – Algorithmic Power Trading, and yes, this has been used with a real book, and yes again, it does work. You can view APT from a hub, derivative, hour type, or compare all opportunities against each other (we call this the ‘WECC’ level).

In this report, we summarize the term markets for quarters (Prompt Q out two years) for all four derivative types (Outrights, Locational Spreads, Period Rolls, and On|Off). From that expansive list of opportunities, we will cull a few that looked intriguing. Ansergy does not make execution recommendations, we simply highlight execution opportunities. In the tables and charts that follow we will cast light upon a couple that caught our eye. We suggest you examine your firm’s exposure to that product (or lack thereof) and draw your own conclusions.

Note on Hedging vs Speculation: we view the hedger’s (Utility, End User, Generator) decision-making process being the same as the Speculator. In other words, APT is equally apt for either user type since both are driven by the same goal of capturing the best price.

Here are today’s notable charts, derived from the APT Summary rankings.

PV HL 2020-Q4 – 2020-Q3

The market stabilized at a near contract low over the past couple days while the forecast calls for increases.  APT suggests a buy with a strong sentiment.

APT History

It’s too early to show much profit at this point, but we’ll keep an eye on it for a while and see the market can rally closer what the forecast is calling for.

Every trade has a PID (product ID) that can be called within the APT History table linked above, the one depicted is PID 475.  Hindsight is 20/20, but this at least gives you an idea of how often the recommendation has been correct.

 

Have a wonderful holiday weekend (for those of you in the US),

 

William