Good afternoon,
The entire west is pacing above normal though the South West will see the most change from week one to week two as its heat anomaly moves from 33% to 70% (chance of above normal temps).
The Northwest is looking particularly dry while the Rockies may see more precip than normal. California is pacing normal, which basically means dry as well.
SP-PV continue to move in harmony as yesterday showed zero congestion during peak hours.
AECO dropped for the fifth-consecutive day and settled at $1.21, a five day difference of $0.59. Socal Citygate is again the other mover after ranging from $3.19 – $2.06 over the past week (today settling at $2.51).
Crude took a sudden $0.60 dive this morning before adding $0.30 just as quickly. Gas increased $0.04 overnight and sits at $2.97 as of writing.
Socal City came off $0.10 yesterday for July.
Mid-C gas demand sunk to 1,052 MMCF representing a drop of 70 MMCF day-on-day.
Jackson Prairie storage exploded with an additional 228,718 MCF today, up from an increase of 57,000 yesterday.
Portland will come dangerously close to 80 today as the forecast checks in at 79, 15 degrees above average. Seattle will step into the 70’s this week, but nothing close to 80, while Spokane project 80s through the weekend (save Thursday).
Demand rose to 17,359 MW yesterday, an increase of 700 MW (all in daily averages). Peak demand increased 1,400 MW day-on-day as well.
Demand increased 430 MW day-on-day yesterday, as peak hourly demand rose 300 MW. Demand finished 450 MW higher compared to the same day last week.
A cool end to this week before a return to the 90’s for Sacramento and high 70’s for San Jose. The 28th stands out with the warmest temps (93) for Sacramento.
SP demand rose just 33 MW yesterday, as hourly loads came in nearly identical.
Burbank is projecting highs in the 70’s through the remainder of the month as 80’s don’t show up until the 1st of June. The second week of June is showing sign of a moderate warm up with upper 80’s.
Phoenix checks in with a high of 92 today, but 99 and 98 to round out the work week. Keep an eye on late next week as the 31st shows temps peaking at 110, four degrees higher than the previous 10-year high, and 13 above the daily average.
Average daily demand fell 230 MW yesterday as hourly peak demand fell 300 MW.
Columbia Generating Station checks in with its fifth-consecutive day at 0%.
SP gas noms bounced back following last week’s drop to 306,000 MCF as today checked in at 412,841 MCF, almost identical to the same date last year (410,000 MCF).
SP wind disappeared yesterday with just 2,209 MW during its peak, down from 2,677 the day before and down from 3,197 at the week’s highest point. Solar tacked on an additional 300 MW compared to Monday, making up part of the renewable loss.
ISO outages sunk to 3,490 MW today, down from a high of 5,953 MW on the 20th.
Hydro
Pend Oreille checked in at 112,000 CFS today, a new annual high and a 4,000 CFS increase in just an hour (from 7 AM to 8 AM).
With 112,000 CFS, Pend Oreille checks in at its second-highest level of the decade and just 3,000 off from the 10-year high. We’ll check in again on Friday to see if these consecutive days of 80-degree temps is enough to tip the scale.
Lower Snake flows sit 15,000 CFS above the previous 10-year high and are still increasing. Mid-Columbia meanwhile finally met the 10-year max and looks to continue its slow decline.
Albeni Falls is holding steady at 2,053 ft after marking that level on the 20th. The four other reservoirs are increasing with a decent slope.
Montana is holding to torch for above-average snow anomalies as everything south of the Washington falls below 50% of normal. The Clark Fork still has plenty of fuel left to push the Pend Oreille above 10-year highs.
It’s just a hair above average, but there is still a non-trivial amount of snow waiting to melt.
STP still sits well above the 10-day forecast though the difference is diminished as we move toward the back-end. Today’s difference checks in 200 aMW higher than the 10-Day.
Transmission
BPA-COI shows an increase of 400 MW in TTC from 10 AM to Midnight today.
Energy Oracle
For those of you unfamiliar with Energy Oracle, the following description had been included in the automated Oracle emails we have been running. Note: Oracle will now be included in our daily blogs instead.
In a thinly traded market, the opportunities are many, the time horizon to execute (either spec or hedge) is narrow. Ansergy scours 388 potential execution opportunities several times a day and ranks all of those against each other. We call that process “APT” – Algorithmic Power Trading, and yes, this has been used with a real book, and yes again, it does work. You can view APT from a hub, derivative, hour type, or compare all opportunities against each other (we call this the ‘WECC’ level).
In this report, we summarize the term markets for quarters (Prompt Q out two years) for all four derivative types (Outrights, Locational Spreads, Period Rolls, and On|Off). From that expansive list of opportunities, we will cull a few that looked intriguing. Ansergy does not make execution recommendations, we simply highlight execution opportunities. In the tables and charts that follow we will cast light upon a couple that caught our eye. We suggest you examine your firm’s exposure to that product (or lack thereof) and draw your own conclusions.
Note on Hedging vs Speculation: we view the hedger’s (Utility, End User, Generator) decision-making process being the same as the Speculator. In other words, APT is equally apt for either user type since both are driven by the same goal of capturing the best price.
Here are today’s notable charts, derived from the APT Summary rankings.
APT suggests a buy with a strong sentiment as the market is at a near-low while the forecast suggest a higher settle.
You’d be in the money if you bought at the first strong sentiment in the past couple weeks (on the 18th).
Every trade has a PID (product ID) that can be called within the APT History table linked above, the one depicted is PID 642. Hindsight is 20/20, but this at least gives you an idea of how often the recommendation has been correct.
Have a wonderful day,
William