The first half of the next 14 days will be warmer than the latter half, especially in the Great Basin and the Southwest. The Northwest will cool considerably as well, falling from the 70s to the 50s in the Western side of the states.
As the Northwest cools down, it looks like it will be getting some additional precip as well, at least in the form of 33% above normal. NP is drying out in the meantime.
SP-PV showed prices at $57 and $35 at the same hour, respectively.
AECO continued to bounce all over the map, now settling at just $0.27, down more than a dollar from Sunday. SoCal-Citygate is down a dollar from a week ago, but up $0.79 from Sunday.
Crude came off $0.64 since this morning, producing a steady fall since peaking at $67.68. Gas shows a similar decline after falling four cents in the same span of time.
NP gas demand fell to 106 MMCF day-on-day though it remains elevated compared to most of April. PV gas demand fell 40 MMCF day-on-day but still shows a 100 MMCF week-on-week increase.
Seattle is forecasted above normal through the 11th and could see temps peak at 75 on both the 7th and 8th. Tomorrow marks the return to 70s with a high of 72.
Demand fell 380 MW day-on-day yesterday and was 180 MW below the same day last week. Peak demand was off more than 600 MW yesterday as well.
Demand increased 240 MW day-on-day yesterday, but still fell 80 MW short in the week-on-week comparison. The bump in average daily demand can be attributed to off-peak demand rising 500 Mw at its lowest.
Sacramento should hover around the low to mid 80’s for the next week and a half, staying close to five degrees above normal in the process. There are not any 90-degree highs in the three week forecast.
SP demand jumped 330 MW yesterday, as peak hourly demand increased 210 MW higher, and the low off-peak demand was 380 MW higher.
Burbank is projecting a high of just 64 today, 11 degrees below normal, but things should heat up quickly after as the 4th and 5th both show upper-80’s, and as much as 12 degrees above normal.
A high of just 76 is in store for Phoenix today, 14 degrees below normal. Like SP, however, that number will be rising quickly as triple digits are projected over the weekend with a high of 105 on the 6th. Temps are expected to stay above normal through the remainder of the forecast.
Average daily demand crashed 530 MW yesterday as temps cooled dramatically. Loads have come off 1,600 MW week-on-week as well.
CGS is back to normal after dropping to 85% over the weekend, and PV3 remains offline.
NP gas noms have increased nearly 120,000 MCF since Sunday.
NP wind peaked at 1,067 MW yesterday, the second-highest hour of the week, and a significant increase over the generation from just a few hours before. SP solar saw generation fall for the fifth consecutive day.
Gas outages jumped in all hubs over the weekend but most of the outages had returned as of yesterday, with SP the lone exception.
Dry in Mid-C until next week where Seattle is showing totals as high as 0.20″. Western Montana shows potential for heavy precip at 0.34″ as well.
Bone dry in NP.
Most of NP will be at or below normal for today and tomorrow, but the weekend is looking warmer and warmer. Tahoe is projecting 75 by the beginning of next week.
Clark Fork reached new 10-year highs today as the river peaked above the 60,000 CFS mark. The Wenatchee and Salmon both touched new 10-year highs over the weekend but have steadily slowed down since. Expect the Spokane to make a strong push soon as high temps return and plenty of snow still available to fuel the surge.
Grand Coulee is holding steady around 1,222′, while the other reservoirs have started filling rapidly. Hungry Horse has added five feet since Saturday.
We are reaching the time of year where anomalies can run wild, but a 296% anomaly in Flathead is still worth pointing out. There is still a lot of snow that needs to be moved through the Northwest, and particularly the Upper-Columbia.
The NWRFC 10-Day shows a 700 aMW decrease by Sunday before increasing again by Wednesday next week. STP projects above the 10-day for all of next week.
Note that BPA – COI TTC sits 150 MW above last week at its max. The decreases remain the same, however.
For those of you unfamiliar with Energy Oracle, the following description had been included in the automated Oracle emails we have been running. Note: Oracle will now be included in our daily blogs instead.
In a thinly traded market, the opportunities are many, the time horizon to execute (either spec or hedge) is narrow. Ansergy scours 388 potential execution opportunities several times a day and ranks all of those against each other. We call that process “APT” – Algorithmic Power Trading, and yes, this has been used with a real book, and yes again, it does work. You can view APT from a hub, derivative, hour type, or compare all opportunities against each other (we call this the ‘WECC’ level).
In this report, we summarize the term markets for quarters (Prompt Q out two years) for all four derivative types (Outrights, Locational Spreads, Period Rolls, and On|Off). From that expansive list of opportunities, we will cull a few that looked intriguing. Ansergy does not make execution recommendations, we simply highlight execution opportunities. In the tables and charts that follow we will cast light upon a couple that caught our eye. We suggest you examine your firm’s exposure to that product (or lack thereof) and draw your own conclusions.
Note on Hedging vs Speculation: we view the hedger’s (Utility, End User, Generator) decision-making process being the same as the Speculator. In other words, APT is equally apt for either user type since both are driven by the same goal of capturing the best price.
Here are today’s notable charts, derived from the APT Summary rankings.
With the market at a six month low, APT is suggesting a strong buy.
Ansergy has been recommending a buy since the 17th and saw profit max out if bought on the 18th ($2.25).
Every trade has a PID (product ID) that can be called within the APT History table linked above, the one depicted is PID 161. Hindsight is 20/20, but this at least gives you an idea of how often the recommendation has been correct.
Have a great day,