Good afternoon,
Here’s a look at today’s fundamental highlights.
Demand
Peak demand increased 127 MW day-on-day yesterday, reaching 12,487 MW. This also helped bring the daily average to 10,699 MW, a 60 MW day-on-day increase.
SP-15 saw a more dramatic day-on-day peak hourly demand increase with 360 MW tacked on yesterday, reaching 14,788 in the process. Average daily demand rose 280 MW day-on-day but fell 50 MW short in the week-on-week comparison.
Mid-C on the other hand, saw peak hourly demand fall 93 MW day-on-day and average daily demand drop 120 MW largely thanks to late-evening hours dropping close to 500 MW, though that was partially offset by an increase in the 2 and 3 AM hours.
Weather
Just two stations fall below normal in the ten day aggregate temp forecast and they are both in Montana (Kalispell and Billings). SP15 is pushing well north of average as Burbank comes in at 4 degrees above normal, while the deserts are even warmer with Palm Springs’ 7 degrees above normal. NP is more of a mixed bag though San Jose and Sacramento each show a 3+ degree anomaly.
Two Mid-C and two NP15 stations are showing precip anomalies greater than 1″. Most stations are projecting above-average precip over the next ten days though SP15 and the deserts are trending dry.
Just a high of 50 today in Seattle, but temps will rise to 63 by the 6th, marking six degrees above normal in the process. That also sets the high water mark for the next three weeks and highs will mostly fall below normal. Precip looks heavy through the 10th, especially tomorrow and Friday as each day comes close to topping one inch. Snow levels forecast at 5,500 feet overnight.
Portland gets an almost identical forecast though it begins much warmer as today is expected to reach 59. The 6th should top out at 64, five degrees above normal, though that will be paired up with significant precipitation to the tune of 1.47″. Snow levels will be particularly high that day.
With a high in the 40’s today and just 51 tomorrow, Spokane could see snow added to the higher elevation in its surrounding mountains as precip will be heavy. Highs will gently warm up over the next six days before just peaking above normal with a high of 57 on the 10th. The rest of April projects below normal.
There are a few 70-degree days in the forecast of the next ten days, but most highs will sit in the upper 60’s. It’s the daily lows that are driving a high aggregate anomaly mentioned in the first table as lows will stay as high as 59 on the 6th, 11 degrees above normal.
A little warmer in Sacramento as today should top out at 74, six above normal. There should be three additional 70-degree days over the next ten, though 75 looks the be the warmest. Most days are projected above normal over the next two weeks.
The deserts are getting all the action this week as today shows a high of 91, nine degrees above normal, and will eventually climb to 96 by the 11th, 12 above normal and ten above yesterday’s forecast. The rest of the 21 day forecast shows consistently warmer than normal daily highs as well.
Burbank is looking mostly average save for a dip to 67 on the 7th and jump to 82 on the 9th. The rest of the forecast projects highs staying within a couple degrees of normal. The high of 82 for the 9th is an increase of ten degrees over average.
Las Vegas gets its own share of warmer than normal daily highs as just two days over the next 21 project below average. Every day through the 12th forecast above 80 with the 7th marking the high point at 87, 11 degrees above normal.
Denver gets an erratic couple days beginning with tomorrow’s high of 66 followed by Friday’s high of just 43. Temps climb back to normal quickly and follow that up with an eventual high of 75 by the 12th, 12 degrees above normal.
Salt Lake’s shows just one day below normal through the 12th as the 8th projects a high of 56, two degrees below average. The anomaly grows thereafter as the 10th and 11th both show a high of 73, 14 degrees above normal for each.
Hydro
Watch for large, steady increases through the next 10 days as the NWRFC forecast moves from 14,324 aMW today to 20,576 aMW by the 13th. The STP forecast increases faster through the 10th before being surpassed thereafter.
Mid-C, Idaho, and Montana each pace above average though the former two hubs have fallen below 2017’s levels, while Montana is still a comfortable five inches above last year.
NP-15 shed over an inch of snow water equivalent over the past week while Montana, Idaho, and SP-15 managed to add to their totals.
Grand Coulee had been setting new 10-year lows since Feb-15th, but that course deviated beginning on the 28th of March and now sits two percentage points above the 10-year minimum at 46%. Still a far cry from the average (56%).
This puts the reservoir on pace with last year and several percentage points lower than either 2016 or 2015.
Generation
Solar generation increased more than 400 MW yesterday, but wind all but disappeared as it peaked at just 135 MW in the afternoon, down from 3,030 MW the day before. Wind remained heavy in the night hours however.
Wind generation was all but missing for most of yesterday, at least until the late-evening hours as generation ended up peaking at 1,760 by 11PM. It’s since dropped back to 235 MW as of 11 AM today, a far cry from the 3,000+ MW generation at the same time on the 1st and 2nd.
Have a wonderful week,
William