Ansergy Gas Fundamental Update
SoCal Citygate continues to draw all the attention after soaring to new four-year highs yesterday, settling at $19.58/MMBTU.
While Burbank’s minimum daily temps are set to return to normal over the weekend, tomorrow will drop to 38, seven below normal and a new 10-year low, potentially putting more stress on demand.
While Southern California makes a relatively quick recovery in daily lows, Sacramento should stay well below normal for at least another week. This cold spell is highlighted by a low of 29 tomorrow, 13 degrees below normal and four below the previous 10-year low.
Salt Lake City is trending a few degrees warmer than projected yesterday but will stay comfortably below normal as tomorrow dips as low as 21, seven below normal. The rest of the 21-day forecast suggest a steady climb to above-average minimum temps.
Seattle may have the fastest rebound from below-normal temps in the west as tonight’s low of 27 (nine-below average) will make a quick bounce to 36 tomorrow followed by a close proximity to normal for the remainder of the forecast.
Northwest Gas Fundamentals
Demand sits at 1,557 MMCF today and is projected to rise to 1,672 MMCF over the weekend. NWP: Stanfield intertie fell 124,000 MCF day-on-day, the largest intertie decrease, while NWP: Boise intertie increased 98,000 MCF.
This week’s cold snap brought heavy withdrawals along with it, especially on Tuesday as storage change fell to -865,773 MCF. Storage has run negative every day since the 17th.
Total system demand increased 250,000 MCF day-on-day but remains up a massive 800,000 MCF compared to the 17th. Storage fell 690,000 MCF yesterday, and 942,000 MCF the day before.
The change in storage from the past few days marked the steepest withdrawals since January of last Year.
As noted earlier, Transwestern: North Needles is online, but remains at just a third of its levels from September.
On System demand dropped 109,000 MCF day-on-day as all sectors of demand saw at least some decline, though Demand – Elec had the steepest in terms of percentage (5.3%). Despite the daily drop, On System demand remains up 31% week-on-week.
Core Demand’s peak at 1,774,000 MCF on the 19th marked the second-highest demand in the past 12 months.
In the face of heavy demand, storage ran positive yesterday at 104,000 MCF. This came on the back of -181,000 MCF the day before, however.
Enjoy the rest of your week,