Because Monday was a trading holiday in the US, STP was released a day later, and so too was our update. Here are the results.
- February – Down 1,002 aMW
- March – Down 465 aMW
- April – Up 258 aMW
- May – Up 366 aMW
- June – Down 796 aMW
In a stark change compared to the last several weeks, February saw its first sharp cut at 1,002 aMW, though the month remains at its second-highest forecast. March dropped for the second straight week after shaving 465 aMW, while April and May each have showed modest increases at 258 and 366 aMW respectively. June dropped just under 800 aMW and essentially wiped out all the gains it showed last week.
February immediately sees reductions, and these cuts continue until the 5th of March, with the largest (2,250 aMW) coming on March 1st. Those early month reductions were enough to set March’s aggregate change below 0 as the remainder of the month didn’t vary much from last week. April has modest increases in the first four days of the month before remaining mostly unchanged, while May had its increases from the 7th to the 10th. June’s cuts came from the 4th-8th.
With the most recent cuts to February, this year fell behind ’17, ’15 and ’11. March sits at just over half of last year but remains relatively average thanks to smaller forecasts from last decade.