Ansergy Gas Fundamental Update
Good afternoon,
Markets
SoCal Citygate continues to see its prices move erratically as they fell $0.85 day-on-day after rising $1.53 from the 13th to the 15th. Most other hubs had small day-on-day changes as prices stabilized after a slow rise from the low on Feb 2nd. AECO had the second-highest percentage inter-day change with 5.7% increase ($0.11).
Weather
Burbank will see daily highs rise to 77 tomorrow (nine above normal) before taking a dive as low as 62 (six below normal) by Monday. Temps are forecasted to stay below average for the following two weeks, though mostly hovering within a couple degrees of normal.
Salt Lake City will finally get a cooldown as well as the 19th is forecasting a low of 19 followed by 18 on the 20th. Both days come in several degrees cooler than projected yesterday. Lows look to bounce back quickly as the 23rd shows up five degrees above normal.
Sacramento is not exempt from the cold snap as the 20th projects a low of 28, 14 degrees below normal, and the 19th at 29 degrees. All days from the 18th through the 23rd are at least four degrees below normal and all days should see temps in the 30s.
Seattle lows will fall from 44 tonight to 25 by the 19th, settling at 11 degrees below normal. Temps will dip into the 20’s for a total of three straight days (18th-20th) before eventually climbing back above normal by the 22nd. The rest of the month projects lows to stay within three degrees of average.
Northwest Gas Fundamentals
Demand sits at 1,587 MMCF today and is projected to fall to 1,563 MMCF by the 18th. Compare that to one week ago and demand has risen 487 MMCF, an increase of over 44%. NWP: Boise intertie fell 82,000 MCF day-on-day, the largest intertie movement.
Storage has seen a massive shift since the 12th, moving from a net change of -544,000 MCF to over 99,000 MCF in added storage. This marks the first day of positive storage since January 21st.
WECC Interior Fundamentals
Palo Verde demand is projected to rise 70 MMCF to 1,501 by the 18th, an increase of 170 MMCF since the 8th. Demand fell 45 MMCF day-on-day.
Southern California
SoCal Gas Report
Total system demand increased 153,000 MCF day-on-day, but still down 650,000 MCF compared to one week ago. Storage increased over 80,000 MCF day-on-day, though has decreased 185,000 MCF week-on-week despite the sharp drop in demand.
Transwestern: North Needles is offline again as of today, falling from 265,000 MCF yesterday to 0 today, and ending the 20 day online run.
Total System Demand has seen a steep decline after hitting a monthly high on the 12th at 3,012,000 MCF.
Northern California
PGE Gas Report
On System demand dropped 48,000 MCF day-on-day as Demand – Core took the biggest hit at 47,000 MCF inter-day decline. Intertie – El Paso decreased 65,000 MCF day-on-day, though still holds a 50,000 MCF week-on-week increase.
Almost all the core demand week-on-week increase was realized on the 10th and 11th. The days since have essentially held their position.
Storage fell 106,000 MCF day-on-day, though remained positive at 50,000 MCF, marking the fourth consecutive day without withdrawals.
Have a wonderful weekend,
William